OPEX Trades - VistaPrint NV (Public, NASDAQ:VPRT)

The first chart is a stretch version of our gap resistance which we noted over the last couple of posts. We'll monitor it daily to see how it plays out.

OPEX is notorious for chop, so if at all possible, we want to focus on stocks trading outside of the previous day's range. Both VPRT and ILMN printed on the TI momentum scan in early trade.

VPRT was not obvious at first because it had so much congestion at the top of yesterday's range, but when we formed a base at that level, it looked compelling as an extension trade. The thick red line is the all time high prior to today.

If we consolidate in the upper range, we may get more mileage out this name. I'm adding it to my focus list.

ILMN - basic low risk entry , but not enough volume after yesterday's big move for a full extension.


CLF is one of my usual suspects and depicts typical OPEX trade - within a narrow range for most of the session. Last hour these usually break one way or the other.

The wider range view of CLF shows a H&S top after a sizable run. Could be a good candidate for next week.

Technical Picture - Gap Resistance In Play

I'm posting this SPY gap chart again tonight. I'm calling it the Lehman gap, but in fact it occurred about two weeks after the Lehman bankruptcy as the world financial crisis was gathering momentum. Today's spinning top edges into the gap, but closes at $107.16 (base of gap). Technically speaking, this gap is significant and will remain as such until it is filled.

Tomorrow is triple witching OPEX, but if we break below today's range, it could be good trading.


Transports appear to be forming a bearish rounded topping pattern.

Couple of stocks I picked off of the Trade Ideas momentum scan as longs earlier this week are now perfect candidates for shorting because they're so overbought. ASH from Tuesday and CMA from yesterday.

Technical Picture - SPY - Weekly Gap Resistance In Play

The SPY's bearish gap resistance from last October is in play. You may have noticed that the markets started to get really choppy in late afternoon. That's triple witching OPEX starting to kick in.

Technical Picture - New Recovery Highs (Again)

Today's extension to fresh 11-month highs reflects continued momentum/short-covering off of yesterday's reversal higher, after today's initial pullback proved once again to be short-lived. The dollar initially tried to rally (early weakness in S&P), but couldn't hold. Bernanke's well quoted statement midday "from a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over at this point" probably helped the bulls push prices higher. Leadership was provided by commodities and industrial related groups, with a reversal lower in the dollar fueling gains in energy and metals, and new frost concerns driving the agchem complex sharply higher (see my POT trade below).

Many traders, like myself had been anticipating a more meaningful market correction, but it just hasn't materialized, as pullbacks continue to be short and shallow. Despite the overbought view of the markets, we will likely continue to drift higher until a catalyst can come up with the power to turn things around.

$USD vs. SPX sums up the technical picture.

Technical Picture - New Recovery High

New recovery highs for the S&P and Nasdaq, unconfirmed by the DOW. As mentioned in the last two posts, I think we are done and we need to correct, however, I'm waiting for a clear signal to short the market and look for shorting opps. Today, the momentum scan was quite active on the long side, so I'm not going to fight the tape.

DNDN - takeover chatter propelled the stock out of its base in early trade. A long period of consolidation made this stock attractive for the second leg up. I didn't want to overshoot the expected target so I placed my fibs from the last consolidation to the tweezer top. Price held the ambush zone as support and traded sideways, consolidating the early move through time as opposed to price.

UA gapped and consolidated in an orderly fashion. Extension stalled at 50% which was not totally surprising, given the run up in price over the last few sessions.

Technical Picture - Win Steak Ends at Resistance

As discussed on Thursday, preliminary targets on S&P have been attained and now we anticipate a retracement to either the trendline or the base at 950.


IBD says a weaker dollar and inflation fears are propelling gold higher. Really?, I thought gold bugs were pushing gold higher. The $USD chart still has me scratching my head, because lower prices are not being confirmed in the MACD.

Technical Picture - Preliminary S&P Target Attained

My preliminary target for the S&P was attained today as depicted on the chart above. That's not to say were done, we may edge higher, but I would expect some profit taking very soon. A pullback to the trendline or the base (950) would be healthy before the next leg up.

AEM broke out of yesterday's late day consolidation on the open. I waited for the pullback and jumped in. Took a partial when it stalled at $68.00 and I'm holding the balance overnight. From the 15 min. timeframe, we see that AEM looks well positioned to retest Tuesday's highs. That's a round $ level with long-term resistance, but this is a momentum play with lots of volume, so it won't surprise me if AEM can push through.