Senin, 09 Maret 2009

Reversal in the R-Zone - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)

The first chart is the trend channel of the QQQQ on the 15 minute timeframe. So far, each attempt to rally has failed. Friday's late day bounce was likely to be met with selling as well. How do we know where supply will overwhelm demand? Probably in the R-zone.

Place fibs. from the most recent reaction high (RH) to the most recent reaction low (RL) and wait to see what will happen. If the bounce is real, price will move into the R-Zone, consolidate then move higher. Candlestick patterns in the R-zone are our guide. If the R-zone acts as resistance we'll see red reversal sticks followed by a move lower. If prices consolidate in the R-zone, we want to see more sideways action.

This strategy worked fairly well with stocks trading with the market. I reviewed my WL last night, drew in the Fibs. and set alerts within the R-zone. AAPL set up perfectly.

CELG opened lower but thrust to the top of the R-zone and reversed.


WMT is not trading with the market, but I placed the FIBs from the RL to RH and finally it set up with NRIB at the base of the R-zone.

Same principles apply to stocks in an uptrend. As we noted over the weekend, oil was well positioned to BO. This a chart of SU, which held the R-zone as support on the open. A possible trade opp. is identified by the black arrow.


Tomorrow, I'd like to see a run lower for the markets, followed by a reversal. I anticipate the third rally attempt will have legs. However, I'm not saying that it will happen tomorrow. I'm saying that as we descend the wall of worry, we have to be nimble, and catch the opportunity, if and when, it presents itself.

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