Minggu, 03 Oktober 2010

Technical Picture - Sector Rotation


A handful leading tech names (AMZN, NFLX, PCLN, BIDU) slid on higher volume and closed near the lows of the day. Apparently, institutions are dumping some of the end of quarter window dressing names and rotating to other sectors. More likely, they are lightening up, hoping to average in at better prices.

One name that looks vulnerable to more selling is AAPL. It held support on Friday's inside day, but the 15 min. timeframe is basing and ready to break. If it can't hold the round number $280, it will likely swoon in the area of the daily 20 SMA.


Oil has benefited from sector rotation and is now approaching resistance as depicted on the chart below.


Gold has extended 50% since breaking out of its base. Gold acts as a hedge against the falling $USD which is currently testing a support zone. The USD may pause here, but I don't foresee a huge bounce based on the oscillators.

Gold, on the other hand is a concern because most large cap gold names are not keeping pace with GLD. The GDX broke out and stalled. What's up with that? Is this an interim top?

$Euro testing resistance.

The strongest sector from the July lows has been Agribusiness. As you can see from the chart below, the steep trendline has been broken after price tested yearly highs. Crop futures such as corn are correcting in a big way, so we expect further pullback for Ags.


DE and AGCO are pulling back to trendlines.

POT is pulling back towards Gap support.

MON is bear flagging and looks like it wants to retest the July lows.

Financials are still lagging, but the broker dealer chart below is setting up nicely. I like how the MACD is on the neutral line, coiling before a potentially big move.

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