Minggu, 14 November 2010

Technical Picture - Bears in Control

As you can see from the 15 minute timeframe of the SPY above, the bears are in control, keeping the bulls in check and not allowing price to break above the trendline, which has been in play since the sell-off began.

After hours, prices continued lower to ES 1188.50, currently tracking at 1194. I got a buy signal around 9:30 PM - positive divergence of RSI to lower prices, so I am long overnight using the trendline as my stop.

An oversold bounce is very likely tomorrow, but don't expect the rally to resume anytime soon. We've had institutional selling in many of the tech momo names and that money isn't coming back until prices correct at least 10%.




Talked about AMZN on the stream Friday. Narrow, bottom range trade Friday afternoon led me to suspect further selling despite the daily 20 EMA.

Shorted on breach of Friday's low. Took a partial at the 62% FE of the previous day's range. Stopped out on balance midday, but got back in for the swoon into the close.

If price has a memory, and I believe it does, $157.00 support, should see an oversold bounce.

As we can from the monthly timeframe below, the AB - CD move is complete. The impulse move from A to B retraced 78% to point C and then extended almost 100% to point D. It was a sweet ride, but now it's over.

Someone asked me to do chart analyses of AMZN, AAPL, GS, and MS. This is AMZN and I'll do the rest when I have more time. The only chart among them with short-term potential on the long side is GS.



P.S. Taking Tuesday off. ES trade stopped out for a small gain.

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