Minggu, 26 April 2009

Tough Week - Chop and GOLD

Summary of last week's action: Following the gap-down trend-day down on Monday, Tuesday was an offsetting trend-day up with strong volume in the financials. After that bang-bang volatility, the market went into chop mode for the rest of the week. The 30min S&P chart below highlights the choppiness Wed-Fri. A close in the vicinity of the open usually has chop in between.


I had several scratches and stop outs that alerted me to the chop mode. I had decent long trade in GOLD on Friday. It hit my gap + volume scanner and was very strong relative strength-wise compared to most other gold stocks. Gold (in general) was moving up due to weakness in the US dollar. I will elaborate more in a Technical Picture post.

Selasa, 21 April 2009

Technical Picture - Reverse of Yesterday

Both the NASDAQ and the S&P bounced off of their 20-day SMA and formed offsetting type bars. However, the NASDAQ volume was noticeably less than yesterday's strong distribution day. The McClellan summations are still trending up but with less slope.

The US dollar formed an inside bar. Overall, gold is moving sideways to consolidate the recent down thrust that carried it decisively below both the 20-day and 50-day SMA.

Good places to be today were pretty much the reverse of yesterday - long financials, short inverse ETFs (yes, you can short inverse funds), and short gold. There is never a secure (I mean dull) moment in the market.

The offsetting/reversing action in the financials was impressive and on higher volume than yesterday's break.

Senin, 20 April 2009

Technical Picture - Break in Financials & Commodities

The financials were hit hard today and led a big down Monday on increasing volume in the NASDAQ and S&P. The S&P closed on its 20-day SMA. The McClellan summation index is flattening in both the NASDAQ and the S&P. A follow thru day tomorrow could turn the McClellan summations down.

The triangular consolidation in commodities (CRB) broke to the downside today. The US dollar is working higher. Gold reacted higher following last week's break down from a daily bear flag.

Some good places to be today were short financials, long the inverse ETFs (FAZ, SKF), and long gold.

Minggu, 19 April 2009

Real-Time Scanning Strategy

Using a real-time (RT) scanner seems exciting. The thinking is - out of the thousands of stocks, ETFs, indices, etc., the scanner has just flagged "this one". However, after playing with RT scans for awhile, you find that most scanner settings produce too many hits and don't flag a setup that can be entered immediately. Given a few more seconds/minutes, the scanner will find another trading candidate and then another... This is the case with most canned scanner configurations supplied with the software.

So, when using a RT scanner, the big issue becomes 1) How to sort thru all of the scanner hits to find a solid low-risk entry, and/or 2) How to create custom scans that are much more restrictive (fewer and higher quality hits).

I have been working with custom RT scans (in Trade-Ideas (TI) ) for the past several years. The key for me is to scan for unusual/extreme price action combined with unusually high volume (especially during the opening range (OR) period), and then to monitor for low-risk setups. Although the implementation details will vary depending on the scanner you use, here are the scanning filters I use:
1) Price - eliminate low priced markets by requiring Price > $10.
2) Average volume - eliminate thin markets by requiring Average Volume > 1M shares/day.
3) Relative volume - find unusual volume by requiring Relative Volume > 2 (greater than 2x average volume for the current time of day).
4) Find unusual price action by using one or more of the following:
a) Gappers - gap up/down by 1.5% or more.
b) Impulsive move - change up/down with respect to open of 2.7% or more.
c) Gappers and quick moves - % change up/down of 3% or more.
5) To overcome recent support/resistance - require trading outside of previous day's range.

** NOTE: The thresholds for each option are somewhat arbitary and may be tweaked/changed depending on market conditions and/or the number of hits your desire.

Combined with the above filters, I use a heartbeat alert with a settings of 10 mins. This means that if a stock continues to pass the scanning criteria (filters), it will hit the scanner every 10 mins. The screen shot below shows some canner hits (long on left and short on right) from Friday morning. The last column in each scanner windows displays the Relative Volume.

I add a manageable number (15-25) of the scanner hits (during the OR) to my watchlist (WL) and cycle thru the WL looking for patterns and low-risk entries. I also run a scanner on my WL that alerts on NR7 (narrowest range of the last 7) bars. The concept is that in an active market, range contraction alternates with range expansion. If a NR bar forms at a key sup/res level or within a larger pattern, it may represent a good low-risk entry point.

I would like to alert on inside bars (IB), but TI currently does not offer IB alerts.

Kamis, 16 April 2009

Bear Flag Breaks in Gold - AEM

A question was ask in the comments about the following from last night's Technical Picture. "Gold might be forming a bear flag, but overall it is in the context of a larger trading range (TF). "Flags" which form within TRs are always suspect." The gold sector/index chart ($XAU) below shows that the bear flag formed above the trend line and at approximately the same price level as recent congestion.

Since the index bear flag is in a congestion zone and thus more questionable, the best approach is to find an individual gold stock that is weaker than the index. AEM got my attention. Notice the weakness of the AEM daily chart compared to the index above - bear flag is below trend line. It broke quickly and I had to wait for a pause to enter. Sweet exit at 62% Fib extension.

As the market was firming up, SRS (inverse ETF) had a great setup at the ORL and PDL. I covered at 62% extension of OR and left a lot on the table.
EDIT - Beware that longer term chart patterns in leveraged inverse ETFs (like ultra short 2x and 3x ETFs) are not as reliable and behave differently from their unleveraged counterparts. Such inverse funds track the inverse of the underlying index on any given day, but longer term relationships (on a % a basis) become skewed. The greater the volatility, the more skewed a leveraged ETF becomes with respect to its underlying (unleveraged) index.

Rabu, 15 April 2009

Technical Picture - Tax Day

Each year around tax day I conclude that I should switch exclusively to trading futures. At tax time, the hassle associated with stock transactions (outside of a retirement account) is many times that of futures. Anyway, I survived.

The rally in stocks in still intact. The trend of the McClellan summation index is up for both the Nasdaq and the S&P. The US dollar is still consolidating sideways. Gold might be forming a bear flag, but overall it is in the context of a larger trading range (TF). "Flags" which form within TRs are always suspect. My bearish slant in gold is based on the break of support in gold futures.

Senin, 13 April 2009

Opportunities Every Day - SNDA

Beware of the negative psychology trap. Great traders (like Jamie and Trader-X) demonstrate that there are good opportunities everyday - you just have to remain focused and find a few of them (at least one).

What are the most common reasons that traders can not find a good setup: 1) they are already in a weak/mediocre trade, 2) they are not clear/certain about what distinguishes a GOOD/GREAT setup, 3) they don't have the tools (resources, scanners, etc.) to locate good setups from all the noise, 4) they don't have the patience to wait for a good setup.

The screen shot below includes a snippet of my long scanner from this morning. Of the 10 or so stocks that were hitting the scanner (tends to repeat every 10 mins), several produced good setups sometime during the day.

SNDA was hitting the scanner all morning and eventually setup a nice range contraction at the 38% retracement of the AM range.