Technical Picture - Markets Extend Gains

Futures held their Fib levels in overnight trade and the markets opened near the PDH. On the US market open we had early consolidation in the upper range, which was followed by further extensions long. We ended the session near our Fib targets. Volume was lighter than yesterday. After hours, news of the death of Steve Jobs put pressure on NQ futures. ES futures still holding Fib retracement levels.

So sad to hear about the passing of Steve Jobs. He was such an important innovator. RIP


Initial claims and ECB conference in pre-market.

Since we were able to hold our gains overnight, it was safe to trade stocks on the long side today. I traded POT and TCK. Both trades were executed in the same manner except that TCK reached its target by mid-morning.

Technical Picture - Bulls Get Ambushed

Yesterday, IBD changed their current outlook from "Market in correction" to "Market in confirmed uptrend" based on a high volume follow through day on the NASDAQ as depicted above. Today, they are saying that the rally is in its third year and any new uptrends can fail because the rally is tired. So what observation can we make from this? Just looking at the NASDAQ chart above, two observations can be made:

1. It took four consecutive higher closes to get a confirmed follow through off the reversal last week. That's a long time and should be considered suspect.
2. The follow through day occurred in the ambush zone (50-62% Fibonacci retracement level).

Overall economic data has been soft in recent weeks and today's ADP private sector jobs was even softer, ie. dismal. Top that off with a lower than expected ISM and we had the makings of a real market drubbing.

The 60 minute SPY chart below highlights the double top in the ambush zone. Two trendlines were broken as the bears took over with a vengeance.

There's lots more economic data over the next two days, including the real jobs data on Friday.

The $USD held minor support and bounced.

In my last post, I highlighted a number of stocks setting up. Most of those daily charts are broken after today's session, but we did manage to get some good day trading action.

ERTS broke out of a daily bull flag yesterday.

NVLS set up a long above yesterday's lower base. Took a partial at $37.00 and was stopped out on balance.

MELI, which was my favorite long setup (also included in HCPG newsletter last night), had a beautiful rip after consolidating the opening range and forming a C&H pattern overlapping with the previous session. Euphoric volume spike foreshadows the end of the move.

As we can see from the daily, the BO failed and we have a bearish shooting star.

In my last post, I said that RIMM was a box play. The box was breached in pre-market, so I placed a sell stop just below the pre-market low. Took a partial after three consecutive WRBs.

Technical Picture - Technical Rebound In Play

The markets continued the rebound off the 62% retracement which bottomed yesterday. Tech and small caps outperformed the broader markets. I would expect the rebound to slow or stall into OPEX over the next two sessions as pinning comes into play, and as we move towards the down trendline.

Econ. Calendar - Initial Claims in pre-market, followed by existing home sales, Phil. Fed, and leading indicators at 10:00.

IPO - Looking forward to the LinkedIn IPO tomorrow symbol LNKD

Last night I posted the daily chart of ESRX as a bullish base on base pattern. Today it pulled back to its rising 200 SMA on the 15 minute timeframe and found support , as it has over the last few sessions.

An easy, low risk entry presented itself on the 1 min. chart below.



SNDK was a low risk short after price failed at resistance (blue line). The short extended to 1.27 and reversed, setting up a long. Looks like a solid C&H pattern setting up for tomorrow.


RIMM gapped up on an analyst upgrade, which ruined my morning star daily setup. Small scalp trade.


ALTR was very strong out of the gate. I waited for a Fib. retracement rather than chasing early strength. It worked well for a 1.27 FE.

Tecnical Picture - Bounce Extends

The market has retraced 62% of last week's slide on lighter volume. As depicted on the the 5 min. chart of e-mini futures below. Last Friday's jobs report gave us a wide gap, but formed a bearish rising wedge which eventually led to a complete gap fill. Monday's action was inside, and today we were finally able to extend beyond Friday's high.



SLV has filled the bearish gap more or less, but the bounce has been lame in terms of time and volume. It took three sessions to retrace one day's losses. Very choppy intraday action - not my cup of tea.

USO has retraced 38% of its slide, but needs to push up to 62% in order to fill bearish gap.

$USD is consolidating after breaching downsloping trendline.

Most of my morning trades were scratches but the afternoon trades turned things around. I have been keeping an eye on RIMM's decent. Today, it breached $44.00 for a minute or two and then snapped back - head fakes usually lead to good trades in the opposite direction.

RIMM is technically oversold (daily RSI below 30) and was a good candidate for an oversold bounce (short squeeze).

Enter long on break of NR7 following head fake. See the volume spike as price takes out the obvious resistance levels (blue lines). This is where the stops get triggered and the squeezes occur. Keep on WL for follow through.

CTSH looks well positioned for an attempt at a gap fill following last week's earnings gap.

Technical Picture - Markets Mixed

We got off to weak start but supports held and the broader markets managed to test and notch marginal new highs, on strength in gold, silver, and semis (TXN/NSM merger). Technology overall, however, remains weak. Hence if the NASDAQ can't confirm the action in the broader markets, it starts to weigh, and eventually, pulls them down too. That's basically what happened this afternoon. Look at the difference between the ES_F and the NQ_F. By EOD we have a potential double top on the ES.



We've discussed the symmetrical triangle pattern on the GDX for several weeks, and today it finally broke out with decent volume. The bullish inverse H&S pattern in GLD also broke.

I traded GG in my swing account, took a partial and holding the balance. After hours GG announced expansion of the Cerro Negro project in Argentina - according to feasibility study - proven and probable gold reserves double.

Day Trades

ALXN, highlighted over the weekend as a bullish setup on the daily. Placed fibs from late day handle to ORH. Enter long as it pulls out of the Rzone.

LULU - bull flag good for a pt.

QCOM - highlighted last night as a bearish wedge on daily. I was tempted to short when it paused at the 38% Fib. retracement, but I waited till the feeling passed because the markets were still in an uptrend and there was no tangible setup. Shorted into the close for a retest of yesterday's lows.

RIMM - short into the close on break of NR base.

Friday's Trades - UA, CIEN, JDSU

As noted in Thursday's post, UA had a well formed bullish flag pattern on the daily. Price broke out 30 minutes into the session and never looked back.

If you missed the initial BO, a second opportunity presented itself as price consolidated at $63.00 and coiled prior to the next leg up. I took a partial at weekly R1 and let the rest run, until I got a sell signal. That was a good opp. to short as UA was extremely extended.

On the daily, we see that UA has room to run for a full measured move, so keep it on the focus list.


CIEN was a volume momentum gap which I found through the momentum scan. Price retraced back to weekly R2 which held as support. I waited for confirmation. Price consolidated at the base of the the 50% Fib. retracement and set up out a low risk entry (NR7) . I targeted a move back to the early swing high.

JDSU was an earnings gap mentioned in Thursday's post. Wait for price to consolidate on or near the rising 5 period ema on the 15 minute chart or 20 ema on 5 minute.

Technical Picture - Markets Mixed

The markets gapped higher after China decided to put off its interest rate hike. The $USD had a sharp retracement sending commodities higher. The DOW which has been lagging, finally breached the November highs, but sellers took control of the close, sending prices back near BE and a mixed finish (tech and small caps finished in the red).

BBY earnings miss $0.07 and downward guidance is weighing in pre-market. However, PPI and retail sales were favorable. The FOMC rate decision at 2:15 EST is highly anticipated. I'll be watching to see how the $USD and GLD react.

The $USD uptrend in intact, but yesterday's sell-off leaves the door open for further downticks. I'm watching to see if supports will hold as prices push back towards the ambush zone, and if the RSI will hold the 40-50 levels.

MA from the HCPG newsletter, was the best trade of the day as depicted below. Next levels of resistance are outlined on the daily chart above.

SOHU Fibonacci retracements in play are $68.73, $65.91, followed by $62.33.

NFLX Fib. retracements in play are $181.00, $176.40, followed by a gap fill at $173.00

Day Trades - BIDU OXY AKAM RIMM

Two momo trades from HCPG.

BIDU opened in the retracement zone (RZ) of the previous range. Took it long as price move out of the RZ. Once it broke above the PDH, it was a vertical up to the 62% extension. It stalled at $115.00 and eventually was stopped on balance.

OXY was not as obvious, but I went long before it broke out of its Bollinger Band. Slow at first, but made up for it in the afternoon. Partial at 62% FE and exit balance at full measured move.

AKAM was an ambush setup. Took a partial when price stalled at lower blue line (low of earnings gap down day). Exit balance at yesterday's support zone - now resistance.

RIMM was a B&B long - easy.

Technical Picture - Profit Taking

The markets gapped up and were quickly faded. Price consolidated near the flat line until wholesale inventory data provided a catalyst for bulls to push prices higher. As the SPY rallied to retest last week's highs, the $USD was making its way higher for the third consecutive session. Something's got to give and the SPY gave way to the greenback as commodity/energy stocks headed south. At EOD price closed back within the Bollinger bands.

After three consecutive higher closes, I expect the USD to consolidate the move for a day or two.

GLD carved out a wide bearish engulfing stick today as participants took profits. We may have a H&S top developing as we see a lot of negative divergence in the RSI to higher prices. We'll follow this closely.

Financials fell back to the base, so we need to see some strength here tomorrow, otherwise, we have the potential for a failed BO.

I decided to scale into a short SPY position, when it stalled on the retest of recovery highs. The 5 minute topping candles with long upper shadows were bearish, but the markets have been so strong, I didn't want to go all in until further confirmation.

Price finally formed a flagging base which begged for more. I covered my position and went long at the 62% Fib. retracement (ambush) of the range since last week's mega gap. The rally attempt was lame, so I exit and re-entered on the short side on a trendline break. Price proceeded lower for a full retracement. Long into the final 10 minutes of the session.

The SPY chart below depicts the entries. It's a wide range view, to show how perfectly the Fibs worked. Today's low is gap support. We need to see a sustained move above the intraday trendline, in order to stabalize the price action.

The gap will be filled sooner or later, so keep the key fib levels in mind.

PRGO was from my NR7 scan last night. Yesterday we had NR7 within a bull flag for SOHU that worked perfectly. Today we had NR7 within a bear flag with PRGO.

PRGO is not as liquid as SOHU, so it was a bit tricky. I entered short, on the first pause after the flag broke. My target was $60.00 support as depicted on the daily above. Things got a little choppy midday, but price eventually reached my target. The bounce off of daily support was really lame, and turned out to be just a pause in the selling, as PRGO wanted lower still.

AKAM gapped down on earnings, found solid support after holding ORL on two tests. I entered long for a target trade to SMB Capital's inflection point tweeted in pre-market.

Daily NR7 scan - APOL, CECO, MA, CRM, FSLR, OTEX - the list of NR7 scan results is too long, but these names are widely held.