Day Trade - Canadian Natural Resource Ltd (USA) (Public, NYSE:CNQ); Cephalon, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CEPH)

CNQ formed a C&H as depicted by the Fibonacci or inverse H&S at the blue line. I entered above the blue line but set my Fibs according to C&H pattern. Premature exit on the first sign of weakness.

CEPH formed a flat base over last week or so as depicted by blue line on daily chart.

Entry on break of handle on 15 min. chart below. Exit on weakness after stock forms tweezer top reversal pattern.


GS and POT also had similar bases, but did not extend in the desired fashion. So 2/4 isn't bad given that neither GS or POT generated a loss. POT looks promising for tomorrow. Also on the focus list for tomorrow is this box play in AMZN. On the daily we have a tweezer bottom reversal setup.

Day Trade - Toyota MTR CP ADS (Public, NYSE: TM)

Following the HCPG Blog and sampling a couple of their subscriber service emails has made me focus more on trading S/R at key MAs. If you trust the setup on the daily sufficiently to enter at a price extension/extreme (but at S/R where a reversal/pause is likely), you can sometimes get amazing entries. Today for example I had a great entry on TM (daily left, 5min right) off of the 200 day SMA. The nice thing about a good first entry is that it gives you confidence to reposition or add on the first retrace.

Edit: For the order fill highlighted, I intended to highlight my initial short fill (avg near 80.50) but instead highlighted the closing of a partial long position carried overnight. The previous day's long was initiated following a gap up and triangular consolidation breakout. It ran into stiff resistance at the 200 day SMA. That is how I knew that price level was in play.

Technical Picture - Market Correction

According to IBD, the seven nastiest bear markets had similar characteristics:

• rebound of 51%-101% before correcting;
• correction of 10% - 39% before starting the second leg of the uptrend.

The Nasdaq's 2009 rebound went as high as 83% and the S&P, a touch over the minimum 51%. There's been no significant correction since the rebound started so we are due for one. Look at the 200 DMA as a potential target or use Fibonacci retracement tools.

If you're not short now, look to get short on the next bounce.

Technical Picture - Bears Own It

The breach of the ORL which coincided with the daily trendline set up the perfect storm. Broad based selling on heavy volume (institutional) into midday. The 50 DMA held as support, but still we closed near the lows. We aren't too oversold just yet, but soon. Oh, and we've given back the entire YTD gains.

GOOG earnings AH didn't impress, stock is down 30 pts.


SPY trade - Lower high is the tell. Breach of trendline is the trade.



H&S patterns for GLD and USD (inverse).


The VIX volatility index made a sharp move higher.

Technical Picture - Distribution Day

Significant downside pressure in early trade gave way to stabilization and a retracement in the afternoon. Another distribution day, the third in the past week and a half. IBD will be changing its current outlook from "Market in confirmed uptrend" to "Uptrend under pressure" tonight.

After retracing 38% of the Nov.-Dec. rally, the $USD spiked this week for a retest of the rally highs.



Stocks gapped wide and swooned. Gold stocks gapped and attempted to stabilize, giving traders a chance to enter a trade.

ABX gapped below S2 on the daily pivots as depicted in the 5 min. chart above. I've recently decided to plot daily pivots on the lower timeframe and weekly pivots on the higher timeframe (15 min.) so that I have wider perspective as far as potential targets. Of course, things don't always work out as perfectly as the ABX trade. But, the weekly pivot is stable over the course of the week which is helpful when reviewing charts the night before.

Technical Picture - Offset

Despite the lack of positive catalysts, the markets recaptured all of Friday's losses and managed 52 week closing highs. However, volume was lighter, so this is not an accumulation day. Last week we had two distribution days each for the S&P and the NASDAQ.

AAPL was a big winner today after it announced that January 27th was the day of its much anticipated special event.

Biotechs and healthcare stocks rallied in anticipation of an upset in Mass.

The greenback managed to move higher as well.

Overnight weakness in S&P futures capitulated on Citi earnings in pre-market, then formed an inverse H&S bottom. When the markets opened, buyers were eager to buy the pullback, shorts got squeezed and prices thrust higher.

Swing Trade Aborted - Amazon.com, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMZN)

The AMZN swing trade was aborted in early trade. Weak retail sales data threatened a retest of the lows so I bailed with a profit rather than wait to be stopped out.

On the daily, I'm hoping for a breach of support so that more shorts get triggered, followed by bargain hunters piling in, leading to a short squeeze.

Today is OPEX. Early indications - JPM selling off on earnings, INTC giving back most of yesterday's AH gains - imply weakness.