Tampilkan postingan dengan label Support_Resistance. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label Support_Resistance. Tampilkan semua postingan

Kamis, 05 Mei 2011

SPY - Levels of Interest

It feels like we will test SPY $134.00 in today as ES_F is printing a lower low in pre-market. All eyes are on this level. If it doesn't hold we have a small bullish gap support area just below. The level of strength of the kick back rally will be telling.

Also watch copper, oil and gold futures, all of which have sold off with volume in pre-market. This could be the flush we've been anticipating.

Initial jobless claims very disappointing 474K vs. 410k consensus.

Selasa, 03 Mei 2011

Technical Picture - Correction In Play

After breaking out of a bearish rising wedge, the SPY corrected to the first minor support level and bounced in the last hour to trim today's decline. The Nasdaq corrected more sharply on higher volume resulting in a distribution day. Most technicians expect a retest of SPX 1340 (former resistance) to come into play.


The SMH retested resistance and is now pulling back on light volume which is constructive. Bullish gap support might be tested.



Th parabolic SAR sell signal for silver ishares triggered yesterday as depicted on the chart above. High volume selling over last two sessions.


The beaten down $USD is forming a tiny base. This could lead to an oversold technical bounce and move back towards the downsloping trendline.

Today's Trades

When I logged into my broker account this morning, there was a bulletin advising of an increase in margin requirements for silver derivatives. This was a good clue that SLV could be under pressure again today.


CTSH was a failed BO yesterday, and today's gap down and breach of support, set up a good shorting opp.

The best part of the CTSH trade was the reversal long after price formed a perfect, low risk handle on the 1 minute chart below.

At the EOD price broke back above resistance. I'll be watching tomorrow to see if CTSH forms a bullish inverse H&S bottom.

ARMH, another failed BO from yesterday, set up a short on break of well defined support. Took a partial at gap support, but eventually it failed. Covered balance as price approached complete gap fill. Not much of a bounce after such a big move.

Selasa, 15 Maret 2011

Technical Picture - U.S. Markets Rebound from Japan Meltdown



The U.S. markets gapped aggressively lower on the Japanese meltdown overnight following nuclear power plant fires. Buyers stepped in as the S&P came close to 1260 support, a key level I noted in my last post. This level corresponds to the 2010 highs, an area we based at for the last seven sessions of 2010. Volatility spiked as depicted below.

Swing Trades

Buying support on the open isn't easy, so I decided to to take some of the nail biting out of my support strategy by trading from my swing account rather than my day-trading account.

HCPG gave us POT $51.00 and I also liked POT $50.00, so I wanted to buy somewhere in between.

In the end, I hesitated and decided to go long weekly S1 which is much closer to $51.00. I took a partial midday.

I was looking to hold my partial swings overnight if we made a higher high than yesterday on decent volume, otherwise we're just on a path of lower lows and there's no point in taking the extra risk of a swing. So POT took out yesterday's high intraday, and we'll see what happens tomorrow.

I'm three for three with SU, but still not holding overnight because we keep printing lower highs and/or lack of volume.

TCK breached my initial, narrow support target on the open, so I decided to put this name aside and wait to see how things develop.

I took TCK long on a NRB, low risk, entry as depicted below. I took a partial at resistance, but it just kept on going on accelerating volume, which was perfect for my swing strategy.

Dummy Day Trades

For daytrades, I've been trading the old standby - low risk, dummy trades over the last two days. I look for stocks that gap with volume. Not too hard to find these days.

SHAW is a contractor with several nuclear power plant contracts set to begin in the U.S. and China. Following news of the Japanese nuclear disaster is gapped down wide on Monday. Two really nice trades yesterday and one today as depicted below.

I take all the high volume pre-market gappers and first hour pt. gainers/losers that catch my attention and create a symbol list in my Trade-Ideas scanner which I run the 15 min. NR7 scan. NR7 signifies price/volume contraction (narrowest price bar over last 7 bars) and foreshadows expansion. For longs I want price, to close above 5 EMA (pink line) and for shorts, below 5 EMA.

MCP printed a few NR7s and carved out a NRIB (narrow range inside bar). Took it long on break of small handle or base. My target was a retest of the intraday high. Not very fond of MCP as it can get really erratic at times, so just take the money and run.

Also traded PEP ( not pictured) NR7 plus hammer, but it went nowhere for a scratch.


Kamis, 10 Februari 2011

Technical Picture - DOW Ends Win Streak

The markets gapped down on weak earnings (CSCO), ignoring the better than consensus initial claims (383 vs. 410). As we can see from the S&P Emini futures chart above, we filled Monday's bullish gap and reversed back up to fill today's opening gap. BTW, a must read in the morning for a good take on the market is Gtotoy. His outlook this morning was spot on.

The rest of the session was a chop fest as various news items were digested - AAPL disappointing sales through VZ, and the mixed messages from Egypt. As the Egypt story unfolds, it will impact futures and the markets.

The DOW ended its eight day win streak, and the other major markets ended the session just above the unchanged.

The $USD looks poised for more upside.

GLD has filled the bearish gap and now looks like it is forming a bearish wedge. If the situation in Egypt worsens, gold could be in play. There are two factors at play with gold, safe haven in troubled times, and higher interest rates which dampen gold luster. GLD gapped lower on the open because of the good claims data, which in turn led to higher interest rates and lower bond prices. I still think GLD has to go and test the 200 DMA before we get a tradable bounce.

Today's trades were the same usual suspects as yesterday. JDSU, FNSR, and AGU tested short-term range supports on the open and bounced. JDSU sold off in the afternoon and probably needs a rest.



RL is consolidating the earnings gap. I'd like to buy it if it retests short-term range support at $124.00 and bounces.

CELL and TUP are bull flagging. TUP printed NR7 today, so we could get expansion tomorrow. Also, don't forget SWK which is still flagging.


These are not recommendations to buy, sell, hold or sell short. Everyone needs to think for themselves when it comes to trading their own accounts. First, it is the only way to really learn, and secondly,you are the only one responsible for your trading decisions. Think of these charts as food for further analysis. Before making a trade, it is important to have a plan. Plan the trade and trade the plan. The plan includes setting a trigger level, a target area and a stop-loss level. It is also important to plan for three possible price movements: advance, decline or sideways. Have a plan for all three scenarios before making the trade. Consider possible holding times. And finally, look at overall market conditions and sector/industry performance.

Good Trading!

Senin, 27 Desember 2010

Day Trades - V, NQH1, TCK

V had been consolidating the previous week's drubbing in a narrow range under $69.00. Placed a buy stop order at $69.05 which was triggered about 5 minutes into the trading session. Price rallied up to and above the weekly R2, but couldn't hold, so I took a partial. The next rally brought us above $71.00. When that level couldn't hold, I folded the balance of my position.

After a gap down and swift move lower, the NQ e-mini futures formed a cup & handle base. Took a long entry out of the base, looking for a gap fill.

Took a partial at the gap fill and let the rest run. More upside, followed by a lengthy consolidation and I closed the trade when it failed in the mid-range of the consolidation zone.

TCK - Buy bounce from support and sell into resistance. Define your trigger when buying support because you don't want to catch a falling knife.


Senin, 20 Desember 2010

Technical Picture - Markets Mixed

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The markets gapped higher on the open, but the gap was quickly faded. Prices extended lower, beyond the gap fill, to first level supports. Prices stabilized and started to rally mid-morning, eventually extending to fresh 52 week highs. The S&P tagged 1250 which is the full measured move of the inverse H&S bottom from last summer as depicted on the chart above. The DOW did not confirm as it was dragged down by AXP weakness on a downgrade.

On the SPY 60 minute chart below, we see that prices are still consolidating within a tight range. Watch the MACD as it coils on the signal line, which could lead to a big move on light volume.


$USD still strong.

Oil has carved out a bull flag and looks ready to BO. A full measured move on a successful BO, should see $97.00.

CNQ flagging.

Copper and coal are bullish and flagging.

Trades

AMRN reached the full measured move of the bull flag pattern today and I sold more shares. I'm still holding 20% and will add to the position on a pullback. There's no resistance on the weekly timeframe until we reach $10.00.

AMZN was a HCPG pick. I waited for a low risk entry after the retest of the BO point. Did not want to trade this on the open (too risky). I'm glad I waited.

POT - buy support and sell at round $ level.

CHK was an ambush trade.


NQ formed a nice continuation triangle after the initial rally from support. I took a partial when the symmetrical target was reached. Price consolidated again in a tighter coiling formation before going vertical for the last sprint of the day. This was my favorite trade of the day.

Technical Picture - Markets Mixed

The markets gapped higher on the open, but the gap was quickly faded. Prices extended lower, beyond the gap fill, to first level supports. Prices stabilized and started to rally mid-morning, eventually extending to fresh 52 week highs. The S&P tagged 1250 which is the full measured move of the inverse H&S bottom from last summer as depicted on the chart above. The DOW did not confirm as it was dragged down by AXP weakness on a downgrade.

On the SPY 60 minute chart below, we see that prices are still consolidating within a tight range. Watch the MACD as it coils on the signal line, which could lead to a big move on light volume.


$USD still strong.

Oil has carved out a bull flag and looks ready to BO. A full measured move on a successful BO, should see $97.00.

CNQ flagging.

Copper and coal are bullish and flagging.

Trades

AMRN reached the full measured move of the bull flag pattern today and I sold more shares. I'm still holding 20% and will add to the position on a pullback. There's no resistance on the weekly timeframe until we reach $10.00.

AMZN was a HCPG pick. I waited for a low risk entry after the retest of the BO point. Did not want to trade this on the open (too risky). I'm glad I waited.

POT - buy support and sell at round $ level.

CHK was an ambush trade.


NQ formed a nice continuation triangle after the initial rally from support. I took a partial when the symmetrical target was reached. Price consolidated again in a tighter coiling formation before going vertical for the last sprint of the day. This was my favorite trade of the day.

Posted a couple of charts on Chart.ly FWLT and FAST. FST also looks good.