Rabu, 10 Februari 2010

Earnings Gap - Baidu, Inc.(ADR) (Public, NASDAQ:BIDU)

BIDU gapped on earnings and guidance. After a shallow retracement, price found support from the rising 5 period EMA. NRIB - NR7 was a perfect entry point.

The bounce off of Friday's lows as depicted on the 60 minute chart of the S&P futures, is developing into a bear flag. If price doesn't rip through the upper channel line soon, wait for break of blue line.

Minggu, 07 Februari 2010

Technical Picture - Hammer Reversal at Support

Volatility spiked Friday and market prices fell into support. When the USD finally reversed off its highs, commodities, gold and the markets ignited a short squeeze. We ended the session with high volume bullish hammer reversal sticks all round. That leaves the door open for retracements going into this week. The CPC level is too bearish which confirms the potential for a bounce.


$USD strength attributable to macro economic concerns over Greece, Spain and Portugal. But the move is extended into resistance zone.

Commodities and financials and many other sectors well positioned for technical bounce from oversold levels.


A couple of trades from Friday.

Trade setup in futures for this week. Price may pull back towards lower blue line, in which case we'll start scaling in ahead of the bigger move at the base.

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Kamis, 04 Februari 2010

Technical Picture - Bears Own It

A gap down open followed by broad based selling. Actually, I was caught slightly off guard as I was expecting this sell-off to happen on tomorrow's jobs data.

The VIX had been forming a bullish flag and today's selling was a good opportunity to trade VXX.


TLT formed a bullish flag (gap is the flag pole).

AGN, courtesy of the Trade-Ideas momentum scan, formed a bearish tower top as it struggled to hold R1 weekly pivot.

Rabu, 03 Februari 2010

Flags - Research In Motion Limited (USA) (Public, NASDAQ:RIMM); Baidu, Inc.(ADR) (Public, NASDAQ:BIDU)

RIMM formed a perfect bull flag. Entry on break of whole $ level. Price stalled midway to the 50% extension. It failed to hold the base as support, but snapped back quickly. Price finally reached the weekly R2 level .

Since the markets are in a confirmed bearish correction, lower the expectations on long setups. Most trades are not going to reach full measured moves in this environment.

BIDU, also a bull flag setup. Entry on break of hammer reversal bar. Then a lot of sideways chop, which held the weekly R2 pivot as support. Finally, volume kicks in and price manages to take out the ORH. Exit as price approaches round $ level.

Another try with GS generated another failure. The setup was an ambush play with support of 20 EMA. The trade was slow. Volume contracted as price attempted to retrace. Too much supply and the stock started to roll over.

Selasa, 02 Februari 2010

Day Trade - Canadian Natural Resource Ltd (USA) (Public, NYSE:CNQ); Cephalon, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CEPH)

CNQ formed a C&H as depicted by the Fibonacci or inverse H&S at the blue line. I entered above the blue line but set my Fibs according to C&H pattern. Premature exit on the first sign of weakness.

CEPH formed a flat base over last week or so as depicted by blue line on daily chart.

Entry on break of handle on 15 min. chart below. Exit on weakness after stock forms tweezer top reversal pattern.


GS and POT also had similar bases, but did not extend in the desired fashion. So 2/4 isn't bad given that neither GS or POT generated a loss. POT looks promising for tomorrow. Also on the focus list for tomorrow is this box play in AMZN. On the daily we have a tweezer bottom reversal setup.

Day Trade - Toyota MTR CP ADS (Public, NYSE: TM)

Following the HCPG Blog and sampling a couple of their subscriber service emails has made me focus more on trading S/R at key MAs. If you trust the setup on the daily sufficiently to enter at a price extension/extreme (but at S/R where a reversal/pause is likely), you can sometimes get amazing entries. Today for example I had a great entry on TM (daily left, 5min right) off of the 200 day SMA. The nice thing about a good first entry is that it gives you confidence to reposition or add on the first retrace.

Edit: For the order fill highlighted, I intended to highlight my initial short fill (avg near 80.50) but instead highlighted the closing of a partial long position carried overnight. The previous day's long was initiated following a gap up and triangular consolidation breakout. It ran into stiff resistance at the 200 day SMA. That is how I knew that price level was in play.