Swing Trader - Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (Public, NYSE:ABX); Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (Public, NYSE:POT)

Two swing trades short ABX. The first was a short following failure to BO on test of previous high. We noted on July 6th that the gold hedge against a weak Euro was out of favor because the Euro reversal had proven quite strong. I waited for price to retrace 50% and I covered as price approached 200 SMA.

The second trade, depicted below is the same principle, 50 % retrace of last leg down (points A to B). Now price has taken out the 200 SMA and we are targeting point C - 50% extension. ABX reports tomorrow in pre-market. I hope price will not regain 200 SMA, but if it does I will cover half.

POT is a swing long, the day after markets reversed. I sold half today as price retested the base ahead of earnings tomorrow morning. I'm not optimistic on favorable earnings, but I think the bottom is in and the sector will continue higher based on crop commodity prices and severe global weather conditions.

Starbucks Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:SBUX) - Is the Star Fading?

After getting beaten down in 2008, Starbucks has made a remarkable recovery. However, that recovery looks to be in jeopardy based on MarketClub's "Trade Triangle" technology and the findings of a 14th century mathematician.

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Technical Picture - Laggard S&P captures 200 SMA

The markets extended last week's advance with the laggard S&P finally closing just above its 200 SMA (NASDAQ, DOW and INDU achieved that milestone on Friday.) We've also retraced 50% of the May-June slide.

Biotechs have been pacing the way higher with M&A chatter ( SNY for GENZ). Last week I posted the GENZ daily chart before Friday's BO. Hope you guys caught this one. I traded it Wednesday earnings C&H pattern and again Thursday and Friday. Today I traded BIIB. The takeover is hostile and large caps such as CELG and BIIB are rallying along with GENZ as possible takeover targets if the GENZ deal fails.

AAPL setting up for expansion with 3 NRIBs since the earnings gap. Today's stick is NR7.

NFLX earnings gap extension and an identical trade again today. BOX trade - next test of support should break.

Also watching Ag/chem. POT daily shows price consolidating and could break higher anytime now.

Technical Picture - Trendline Resistance Holds

The U.S. markets were able to build on the momentum generated by the previous session's strong reversal in opening trade amid some favorable earnings reports from AAPL and others, but the action quickly turned into a fading opportunity. Technically, the S&P stalled on a retest of the downward sloping trendline. See the SPY chart below - the SPY opened where Friday's sell off began. Choppy/mixed trade persisted into the afternoon ahead of the Fed Chair's testimony at 2:00 pm EST. Up until then we had been trading within the initial trendline from yesterday's reversal. The Bernanke selloff started just two minutes in as price broke the trendline and swooned.

The testimony reinforced what we already knew, slower growth than previously estimated and high unemployment over the next few years.


Euro retracing after hitting resistance and USD retracing for a retest of the broken trendline.

C&H Day Trade - Genzyme Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:GENZ)

From the daily timeframe (above) we see that GENZ has a base of resistance at $54.72 -$54.75.

On the 15 minute chart below, GENZ carved out a C&H pattern at the base of the ORH. Place Fibs from the low of the cup to the base of the handle and target a full measured move of 100%. In this case the daily resistance is just 10 -12 cents above the full move, so I let it run a bit higher. Once the extension is underway, volume should expand with price as it moves towards the target.

Day Trade - Research In Motion Limited (USA) (Public, NASDAQ:RIMM)

RIMM carved out a tweezer bottom reversal pattern at the base of PDL setting up an opportunity to go long. As we can see from the wide range view of the 15 minute chart above, the reversal area coincides with a consolidation zone from last week's WR reversal bar. Price rallied back up to the ambush zone (50-62% retracement). After hours tech stocks TXN, IBM, ALTH sold off on weaker than expected revenues. So, the bias for tomorrow is short tech.

The next test of this support area will setup a short for RIMM. As we can see from the chart above, there's no support beyond $52.00, so there's a 2 point short trade if RIMM retests and fails to hold this support level.

Technical Picture - Distribution Day

Bank of America (BAC ) and Citigroup (C) both beat consensus earnings per share estimates, but failed on top line revenues. That sent the banking index down 5.7% leading Friday's plunge. GOOG missed earnings altogether sending the Internet index down 3.4%. The Michigan consumer sentiment index declined as well, leaving investors heading for the exits. It was a broad based sell-off on higher volume (partially due to options expiration) with all major sectors in the red.

The banking index looks bearish with MAs converging over price. The congestion zone should provide support, but how long will it hold? Financial reform was discussed on BAC conference call with analysts - they estimate the new credit card and other rules will cost them $3.8 billion.


GOOG earnings miss provided leadership for the Internet index - down 3.4%. The NASDAQ was down 3.1% on the day but volume was just average.

Chips have been range bound since breaking the longer-term trendline. INTC earnings were very good and I'm still optimistic on the sector.

Transports sold off , but volume was just average. Still, there's nothing to indicate the trend could change any time soon.

The one bright spot that I can find is Ag/chem (MOO). Normal consolidation on Friday despite the overbought posture.