Technical Picture - Best Weekly Performance since July 2009

The broader market scored its strongest weekly gain since July 2009 and the Tech heavy Nasdaq had its best weekly performance since March 2009. A commitment early this week by leading eurozone officials to develop a comprehensive plan intended to stabilize precarious conditions and shore up capital at European banks sent a strong signal to global investors. It also got the week started on a strong note. The stock market rallied more than 3% on Monday. JPM results were a drag on the banking sector mid-week. Strong results from Google on Thursday night, helped prices press higher on Friday, even though we are hitting up against resistance.

Earnings will be key this week as many Tech heavyweights are scheduled to report including AAPL and INTC on Tuesday. Markets are overbought and will correct soon.


LNKD is starting to make a move ahead of earnings scheduled for Nov. 3rd.

OVTI carved out a bearish reversal bar on Friday, following the disclosure that their video chips have been replaced by Sony chips in the new iphone iOS4. Unconfirmed by OVTI. Speculation that maybe Apple used more than one supplier for its iOS4 video chips.

Technical Picture - Strong Tape

Tuesday's failed bearish extension has emboldened the bulls. We now have a bullish candlestick reversal pattern on the daily "Three Advancing White Soldiers". We've also retraced more than half way back of the two month trading range. We are extended as the pattern implies, however, tomorrow's jobs data in pre-market will be key to keeping the pattern and momentum with the bulls.

On the lower timeframe, we still don't have any negative divergence of the RSI to higher prices. Every test of the rising 20 period EMA was supported by buyers.

Day Trade AAPL. I placed my Fibs from high to high as the stock has been trending higher since Tuesday's capitulation. I was looking for a break of the symmetrical triangle to the downside. Took a partial when price popped back into ambush zone, just before it broke back down and traded to, and eventually exceeded the target.

Technical Picture - Markets Extend Gains

Futures held their Fib levels in overnight trade and the markets opened near the PDH. On the US market open we had early consolidation in the upper range, which was followed by further extensions long. We ended the session near our Fib targets. Volume was lighter than yesterday. After hours, news of the death of Steve Jobs put pressure on NQ futures. ES futures still holding Fib retracement levels.

So sad to hear about the passing of Steve Jobs. He was such an important innovator. RIP


Initial claims and ECB conference in pre-market.

Since we were able to hold our gains overnight, it was safe to trade stocks on the long side today. I traded POT and TCK. Both trades were executed in the same manner except that TCK reached its target by mid-morning.

Technical Picture - Short Squeeze on Breach of August Lows

As discussed in my last post, we were expecting a rip your face off, bear market rally on the retest of the August lows. That's exactly what we got this afternoon.

We took the August lows out overnight on the ES mini futures, gapped wide, and after bottoming on the 10:00 turn, we managed a half way back into the ambush zone of yesterday's break down lows to lows. Initially, I thought we might base and break from there, but the bears didn't want, so I got a signal to short again. After retracing most of the morning run up, I noticed the NQ futures were printing new lows on AAPL weakness. The new lows on the NQ and QQQ were not confirmed by the broader markets and that was the tell that we might get the much anticipated short squeeze, if AAPL could just capitulate and reverse.



Bear market rallies are usually very short in duration, so I'm not expecting much follow through. The maximum expectation is the ambush zone of the last leg down as depicted on the 15 min. chart below. But don't be disappointed if we don't even get that far. Don't fight the tape on the squeezes, but don't forget that the overriding trend is still to the downside. If we gap down tomorrow morning, look for support in the ambush zone of today's range.

Technical Picture - Very Bearish

On Sept. 22 we broke out of H&S pattern on decisive volume. From Sept. 23-27 we had a dead cat bounce on lower volume. Since then we have been pushing back down, ending last week on lows.

To calculate the measured move of the H&S pattern, we take the distance from the top of the head to the neckline (blue line) which is approx. 10 points and extend from the breakout point - approx. $116 and subtract to arrive at our target of $106. The August low is a psychologically significant level and its retest could produce a rip your face off, bear market rally (day trade).

Reading the stream this weekend I saw a lot outrageous predictions of gloom and doom based on the H&S pattern and the top that preceded it. I think some people are incorrectly drawing the neckline. We don't move a trendline unless we make a higher high, so the way I've drawn the neckline is technically correct.

Technical Picture - Bears Follow Through

Price stalled at the 62% Fib retracement of yesterday's range and the bears ambushed. Initially, the PDL held as support, but after the midday doldrums, the bears came back in pursuit, pushing price beyond yesterday's gap fill. We came back for a retest of morning support and it held as resistance, forming a bear flag, which broke into the close.

As depicted below, bulls are trapped and need to hold the 61.8% Fib retracement of the last leg up, if it doesn't give way overnight.

Technical Picture - Gap, Chop and Fade

The big moves took place during the overnight session and we were left with scraps. EOD, we have a bearish black candle which closed in the ambush zone and below the daily 20 SMA. Is this the end of the dead cat bounce? I don't know, I'm waiting for a close below the ambush zone.

As depicted on the 5 min. chart below, we gapped up wide, and chopped around a narrow range for most of the session.

As noted last week, when price is extended and choppy and we want to fade the market, we look for either

1. A failed BO, or
2. The 50 SMA to cross above the 20 EMA on the 5 min. timeframe (MA kisses and air kisses don't count).
   

We short, on a first come basis.

Today, we had a failed BO, which set up a short into the close as depicted below.

Last Tuesday (Sept. 20th) we had a 20/50 MA cross for a short into the close.