Rabu, 20 Mei 2009

Technical Picture - Rally Stalls

Markets gapped up on the open, but the rally came to an abrupt halt a little over an hour into the session as traders realized there was no catalyst to keep going higher. Clearly, the only bullish play was commodities/gold versus a very weak $USD.

As Jim pointed out in the post below, the VIX carved out a tweezer bottom reversal and provided a leading indicator that things were about change. I had 3/4 scratches on my gapper longs (COST, BIIB, TGT). The CNQ oil play was good, but the failed gappers struck a chord and I scoped out a futures short.

Today's SPX shooting star on higher volume foreshadows a change in direction. This is a lower high which implies the bulls are tired. Let's see if the bears can show some muscle here.

Economic calendar - initial claims in pre-market, leading indicators and Philadelphia Fed at 10:00 EST.


Gold, another leading indicator, broke out of a huge base today.


5 minute chart of ES futures trades on either side of FOMC.

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