Sabtu, 09 Mei 2009

Tricky Leveraged ETF Behavior

Question 1: What do the ProShares UltraShort Financial ETF (SKF) and the Dow Jones U.S. Financials ETF (IYF) have in common? IYF tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index and SKF is a 2X inverse fund of the underlying index. SKF is designed to deliver approximately -2X the return of IYF (on a daily basis). So, if IYF goes down 5%, SKF should go up 10%. If IYF goes up 5%, SKF should go down 10%. Simple enough, right.

The histograms (IYF - top, SKF - bottom) illustrate the -2X nature of the returns. The distribution of SKF returns are almost a mirror (negative) image of IYF returns, but with twice the value.
Question 2: Consider the situation where IYF started this year (2009) at around $45, traded lower and now is back at $45 (first chart below). Given that SKF "tracks" IYF (but in an inverse sense), where would you expect SKF to be relative to its 2009 starting price? The second chart below may surprise you. At the start of 2009, SKF was trading just above $100. Now, with the underlying index back to even, SKF is trading around $40. It illustrates why there have been so many complaints and warnings about investing in the leveraged (bull and bear) ETFs.

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar