Rabu, 29 Juli 2009

Technical Picture - Still Range Bound

The S&P is still range bound in a box play, but the pattern is starting to look like a bearish rounded top.

Yesterday we wondered if oil was pausing or setting up an ambush play. Today's gap down open signaled an ambush.

On the TSX you can use the Betapro ETF HOD for maximum effect short oil, and in the U.S. the SCO ETF has similar result. Both gapped up and carved out bullish flags.


Selasa, 28 Juli 2009

Technical Picture - Range Bound

The S&P carved out two consecutive hanging men in range bound trade. Until either of the two top blue lines on the SPY chart is broken (box play - see ABX example of box play at bottom of this post), the only way to trade is cautiously selling resistance and buying support.

Oil looks like it may be setting up an ambush.


Gold is in play, with a sharp move lower out of a box play. ABX gapped lower and tried to bounce, but couldn't hold the next blue support line.

Senin, 27 Juli 2009

Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd ADR (Public, NASDAQ:SNDA)

The first chart is the daily EOD Friday. I was looking to short SNDA below the middle blue line around $55.00.

SNDA gapped down on the open and carved out a hanging man (sort of - long lower shadow). The next stick was an IB in the lower shadow of the HM. The only caveat was the distance of the down sloping 5 period EMA (pink). I decided to take the trade anyway with a stop at PDL. If the distance from 5 ema too wide, stop has to be placed accordingly.

After my entry SNDA printed a doji with long lower shadow, which looked like it wanted to retrace and it did, but it held S1 as resistance and came back down for a fast move to the 50% FE of the late day swing high to the ORL. My target on the second half was eventually reached.

The daily has now carved out a base at $50.00 from a double top. Today's selling on high volume. So we have three consecutive lower closes on accelerating volume - looking for consolidation at the base, prior to BO.

Chinese internet ADRs, as a group were weak today - SOHU, SINA, NTES.

Minggu, 26 Juli 2009

Technical Breakout



We have a technical break out of the inverse H&S on the S&P which officially marks the beginning of a new bull market. That said, volume was not impressive on Thursday, nor for the week. Normally, you want to see a BO occur on high volume.

Friday marked the end of the Nasdaq's 12 day winning streak, on the heels of weak earnings from tech heavyweights MSFT, AMZN, BRCM. However, the NAZ erased most of its early losses to close near session highs. The weak earnings on Thursday looked like they could insight a sell off, but it turned out to be a yawn, except if you owned those particular stocks. On the week the NASDAQ closed the bearish gap from last September.

Narrowing the view to the daily timeframe, the S&P has two points on a trendline and resistance in the area of 1000-1007. It takes three points to define a trend, and seems highly likely that we should start to consolidate the current leg up once the 1000 level is achieved. NASDAQ 2000 -2025 looks like strong resistance.


Earnings lineup for this week - Monday: HON, GLW, SOHU, VZ, ACE, AMGN, BWLD, CF, MAS... Tuesday: CPLA, CRDN, CVH, COH, ODP, PCX, PCAR, TEVA, UA, CRI, LIFE, MEE, NSC, PNRA, WCG, THQI, X,... Wednesday: AET, CCE, COP, GD, MANT, MHS, TWX, TWX, TEL, WLP, AFL, ASIA, CERN, ESRX, LNC, GMCR, HIG, NETL, RGR, TTEK, V... Thursday: AMSC, ALU, APA, CI, CMI, CL, EBIX, EXPE, XOM, GT, MA, OMX, ZEUS, MFE, DRYS, STRA, ESLR, FSLR, MET, SYNA, VPRT, DIS...

Kamis, 23 Juli 2009

Large Cap Tech - Earnings Disappoint

Large cap tech earnings tonight might stall the rally. The first chart is the daily Nasdaq futures, currently printing a bearish stick for the day.

The second chart is the NQ futures 15 min., followed by MSFT and AMZN earnings fallout. BIDU, BRCM, JNPR also lower on earnings.

Get ready for some profit taking.



Q&A

From the mailbag - Q & A

Hi,
you are truly an idol as far as your trading goes. Great chart reading and great discipline in your trade management. You are already at the level where I want to be at some time :-)
I have a question for you ... how do you scan for stocks to play intraday? Only per HCPG or also some scanners or some fixed watchlist with always the same stocks? Do you also do scans on daily charts for stocks that are sitting in a tight contraction (like Jim mentioned the other day)?
Thanks for your insights!!!

Thanks for the kind words.

How to scan for stocks intraday - Jim and I both use Trade-Ideas scanner. I use TI for pre-market gappers as well. But during the trading day, the TI scanner tells me which stocks from my fixed watchlist are running/consolidating (NR7 scan). Plus we also use pre-defined scans for finding momentum stocks.
Also, sort the fixed WL by % change at various times of the day to concentrate on outliers.

Review HCPG newsletter for charts of interest and trigger plays which are added to the focus list. Nightly scans of dailies for contraction setups as well as chart patterns, B&B, candlestick reversal patterns. Also make extensive use of Briefing.com Platinum for gappers, analyst ratings, swing trader, intraday scans, sector leadership, floor talk...

I don't like when my focus list is too long, because it becomes unmanageable and I end up missing good trades. So 10-12 names in addition to the fixed WL, is more than enough for me.

Hi,

Looks to me like the uptrend is broken in the post market, which brings up a couple of questions? Are you still only using Interactive Brokers and not holding positions overnite? Are they very cost effective? Have you seen Zecco who advertises--$0 stocks trades ? Or anyone else that is dirt cheap?

I have two trading accounts: one for day trading and one for swing trading. Still using IB as my broker for US markets. IB is very cost effective, but I live in Canada, and Canadian brokers are still charging a fixed rate per trade, so IB is very cost effective by comparison. IB also very reliable when it comes to fast executions. Not sure Zecco can provide same level of service as IB.

Trend appears to be breaking down after hours with earnings disappointments from large cap tech. Will review weekly chart over the weekend, but it's looking highly likely that we will have a failed BO of inverse H&S.

Commodities Rally - Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (Public, NYSE:POT)

The nice thing about mapping out all the support/resistance levels on your favorite stocks, is that you can quickly visualize the perfect entry when price consolidates at or near a previous S/R zone. Also, if you miss the perfect entry, you can gauge whether or not to jump in midway, depending on the profit potential to the next S/R level.

CNQ consolidated at base of resistance setting up an obvious trade with predetermined target (next blue line).

POT - I missed the early entry at $90.00, but found a spot midway to the next level of resistance in the form of a bull flag.

I hadn't planned on trading EBAY, but when it carved out a C&H pattern with NRIB (NR7) as the trigger, I couldn't resist. The pattern failed and I was stopped out. Why?

Well, if we look at the 24 hour chart with the pre-market action, we note that price reversed after topping out at exactly the same price level where the C&H pattern attempted to BO (blue line). I was too rushed on this trade and didn't take the time to look at the price action in pre-market. Important to review PM price action especially for gap trades.


Rabu, 22 Juli 2009

Technical Picture - Momentum Decelerating

A slower start on some mixed earnings, but midday the S&P and Nasdaq carved out new highs. The DOW didn't confirm and the markets reversed. But despite the afternoon retracement, the Nasdaq managed its 11th consecutive higher close.

Momentum is decelerating but no clear sell signal. No point in fighting the tape but it really feels overdone. Yesterday's hanging man is unconfirmed until we close below the body, and ideally below the entire stick. Today's candlestick is a spinning top and also foreshadows the end of the move is nigh.

SPY trade - long on break of triangle. Exit at shooting star when price fails to hold $96.00 whole $ level. Short the double top.

GRMN was a HCPG pick from last night's newsletter. Look at the daily and see narrow range consolidation ahead of expansion. The actual trigger was $25.00, but I missed it and waited for price to pause. It's always best to wait for price and the 5 period ema to come into play if you miss the actual BO in early trade.

MOS - bear flag break. I was holding out for an inverse C&H, but MOS didn't want. I guess earnings AH had a lot to do with it.

Selasa, 21 Juli 2009

Overbought Profit Taking

The advance stalled when the S&P tested it's June peak. The combination of extended technicals and disappointing outlook from CAT's conference call, and the Fed Chair's outlook for a slow recovery, led to a steady but only modest slide into early afternoon trade. However, no follow through developed with the S&P stabilizing near congestion and bouncing into the close allowing the markets to extend their winning streaks (Nasdaq up 10 in a row) and all majors setting new multi-month closing highs). But the SPY carved out a red hanging man and the S&P a green one. Haning man has to be confirmed.

AAPL and SBUX rally on earnings after hours.

The H&S top in POT which I described last night was broken on the open when price gapped and tested Friday's highs. However, sellers fought back. A bull/bear battle ensued. The initial price action was like a yoyo with wide spikes up and down, but the bears had the advantage as measured by lower highs. Eventually, we reached price/volume contraction and a bearish rounded pattern took shape, leading to expansion on the down side.

MOS forming H&S top intraday at $48.00


CNQ was a NRB at base of support.

Senin, 20 Juli 2009

HCPG on Fire!

HCPG were on fire today. I managed to get in on two of their picks from yesterday's newsletter - SNDA and FFIV. It's a good thing these didn't break until the afternoon, because I was going into the session bearish given that the markets were so extended.

Anyway, check out the HCPG blog for the rest of their winners.

POT is on my bearish list because it's in such a weak uptrend in a bullish market. I shorted it when it formed a bearish topping pattern early in the session. It could be forming a bearish H&S top intraday, so I would be looking for a short if it breaks the base at the blue line. If you're trading the Canadian TSX POT, that's roughly equivalent to $100 CAD.

Range Contraction, Range Expansion

Per Jamie's post above, HCPG definitely had some nice picks today. If you do not have an evolved scanner and a good eye for picking the best setups, a service like HCPG can help orient you in the right direction.

A key to these nice setups is to look for range contraction in an active market and at appropriate zones on the daily chart. BIDU had broken above a key pivot level on the daily chart (bottom) and then contracted for a couple of days. Today BIDU was very active (hitting my intraday scanner) in early trading and then setup range contraction intraday (symmetrical triangle, penant). The setup led to 3 WR 15min bars (upper chart), plus a tad more. An aggressive trader might have entered earlier based on the daily setup.

Minggu, 19 Juli 2009

Technical Picture - Testing the Base for a Breakout


Earnings this week - Monday: HAL, JCI, BSX, TXN, and ZION... Tuesday: AKS, BLK, CAT, KO, FCX, LMT, MRK, RF, SGP, STT, AMTD, UNH, AAPL, GILD, STX, SBUX, and YHOO... Wednesday: MO, BA, DAL, GENZ, MS, NTRS, PFE, PEP, WFC, EBAY, ISRG, MOS, and VMW... Thursday: MMM, T, BMY, CME, EMC, GR, NOC, POT, RTN, UPS, AMZN, AXP, BIDU, BRCM, BNI, MSFT, and NFLX.

We need to see a few more big beats like INTC and GS last week, otherwise, the rally will stall and/or the BO will fail.

Sabtu, 18 Juli 2009

Cup & Handle - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)

AAPL gapped up and rallied for the first hour, then consolidated the move with a shallow, rounded retracement, which ultimately formed a C&H base with NR7 (NRIB) as the trigger. Enter long on break of base or outside bar (OB). Use the OB as your stop. Since this is a chart pattern, we place our fibs from the low to the high or base of the pattern. On a measured move basis, the expectation is a 100% move.

I took a partial after three consecutive WRBs as price came into the 50% FE. Once price closed well above 50% FE, I tightened stop to previous bar low and I got stopped out. Price eventually tagged $152 which was just 20 cents shy of measured move target.

INTC retraced into the r-zone of the last leg up (previous day) and managed to close back above MAs for another extension of the earnings gap. I closed the position when it printed a red star. The thing about slow moving, low priced stocks, is not giving too much back.

What's Up with Gold?




After watching this video from the folks at INO, I'm excited about the gold chart again. Look carefully, and you'll notice that spot gold bounced after finding support at the 62% retracement level ie. ambush zone.

Kamis, 16 Juli 2009

Symmetrical Continuation Triangle - SPDR S&P 500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SPY)

SPY formed a symmetrical triangle (usually a continuation pattern) and rallied.

Market is overbought. GOOG earnings beat by $0.27 but investors dumped the stock, which gave up the day's gains in after hours trade. IBM fared better, but the stock is really extended.

Rabu, 15 Juli 2009

Technical Picture - Accumulation

The bearish H&S top on the S&P has been invalidated with today's advance as we just edged and closed above the right shoulder. Institutional buying was in play today.Tech bellwether (INTC) reported better than expected earnings and guided revenue higher thus igniting early strength. $USD weakness helped the energy/commodity complex. GS and BIDU staged technical breakouts.

Don't forget that this week is OPEX. JPM reports tomorrow morning.


GS Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (Public, NYSE:GS) Stages Technical Breakout

GS staged a technical breakout on good volume as we can see on the daily timeframe above.

GS opened with a gap, formed a bullish flag, so we look for a measured move of 100% of the pattern. I placed my fibs from the late day low to the ORH. I entered long as the flag broke and price moved quickly upwards. Midway to the target, it started to slow down. As soon as price and the rising 5 EMA came back together, price accelerated towards the target.


The SPY gapped up and broke quickly, but I waited for the 5 ema to catch up to price before jumping in. Price extended 50% from PDL to ORH.

Yesterday we said that POT had to break above the capitulation base (blue line) before we would contemplate a long entry. Today it gapped into the base and the initial candlestick action was very similar to yesterday, but eventually, it carved out a mini C&H pattern. Here again, we are looking for a measured pattern move of 100%, so place fibs from low to high of C&H pattern and exit at target unless it forms a bearish reversal pattern along the way.

Selasa, 14 Juli 2009

A Couple of Trades

Lots of charts formed C&H patterns yesterday, but gapped up too high today and ruined the setup. APOL gapped, but eventually formed a narrow range base, from which to get long.

It came within 20 cents of the 50% FE and then formed a shooting star on the lower timeframe, so I exit and shorted into the close.

POT is still weak after last week's drubbing. I'm looking for a base to form in the area where it capitulated on Friday - blue horizontal line. In early trade, POT made a move towards the base, but failed, so I shorted it.