Technical Picture - Markets Edge Up in Quiet Trade

The SPY has managed to fill all of the gaps as it bounced off of the lower channel line. However, there's been a lack of momentum as depicted by the RSI. Without a catalyst, I expect more lackluster trade.

The $USD failed in a attempt to BO of an inverse H&S bottom. This has provided a boost to the commodity trade, but outside of Ags and copper, I'm not seeing much conviction yet.

ES_futures trading higher on a very weak $USD as I write this post.

Stocks Setting Up for This Week

NVLS- NR7 coiling - buy on break of $36.00 for a move back up to the base of inverse H&S pattern, and eventual BO.

Flagging - PETM (above) and ERTS (below). Other bullish flags on my WL are DISH and FL (not depicted).

QCOM has been basing in a tight formation for several weeks. Now that the Bollinger bands have tightened, I expect a BO attempt very soon.

MELI has carved out a symmetrical continuation pattern with strong volume on the upswings within the triangle. This is the most promising setup for a BO long.


RIMM is a box play.

AKAM - positive divergence of the MACD to lower prices foreshadows a trend reversal.

FFIV cleared its 200 DMA on higher volume. Look for price to consolidate in upper range and then BO.

CREE cleared its 50 DMA on decent volume. Base and break.

Technical Picture - Markets Mixed

We got off to weak start but supports held and the broader markets managed to test and notch marginal new highs, on strength in gold, silver, and semis (TXN/NSM merger). Technology overall, however, remains weak. Hence if the NASDAQ can't confirm the action in the broader markets, it starts to weigh, and eventually, pulls them down too. That's basically what happened this afternoon. Look at the difference between the ES_F and the NQ_F. By EOD we have a potential double top on the ES.



We've discussed the symmetrical triangle pattern on the GDX for several weeks, and today it finally broke out with decent volume. The bullish inverse H&S pattern in GLD also broke.

I traded GG in my swing account, took a partial and holding the balance. After hours GG announced expansion of the Cerro Negro project in Argentina - according to feasibility study - proven and probable gold reserves double.

Day Trades

ALXN, highlighted over the weekend as a bullish setup on the daily. Placed fibs from late day handle to ORH. Enter long as it pulls out of the Rzone.

LULU - bull flag good for a pt.

QCOM - highlighted last night as a bearish wedge on daily. I was tempted to short when it paused at the 38% Fib. retracement, but I waited till the feeling passed because the markets were still in an uptrend and there was no tangible setup. Shorted into the close for a retest of yesterday's lows.

RIMM - short into the close on break of NR base.

Technical Picture - Tech Leadership

The markets gapped up on the open, the SPY probed its 50 day SMA and faded. Once the gapped was filled and prices stabilized, the bulls regained strength and pushed prices back up. Leadership was provided by tech including casinos, disk drive, internet, software (RHT earnings) and semis, in other words, a broad based tech rally.

As depicted on the SPY charts above and below, the market is extended in the wake of the rally from last week's lows. We have wedged our way back up to the short-term downsloping trendline and a pause here would be good. Rally has been on lower volume

Economic data - GDP in pre-market and Michigan sentiment at 9:55.

Copper has retested broken trendline and we will soon see if this is a dead cat bounce or not. HG_F look like they are forming a topping pattern, basing just above 430.

GDX profit taking took hold this afternoon after the big move from the lower edge of this symmetrical triangle. No surprise given the overbought bias.

Biotechs setting up a solid base here. This defensive sector looks poised for a BO soon.

Biotech sector names - I like CELG - solid base forming after testing long-term support.

CEPH (not depicted) just won its FENTORA patent suit against WPI.

AMRN if it regains $8.00.

GES Bear flag on daily. BO point is $37.50 as long as it doesn't regain its 5 period EMA (orange line on 15 min. chart below.)

Day Trades

FOSL - was hoping this would wait and set properly, but it based at $85.00 and eventually broke for a quick scalp.

JDSU gapped up, consolidated and broke above 5 day EMA.

RIMM was a good day trade into earnings, but after hours, it fell out of favor on weak guidance.

Key supports in play are mapped out on daily chart above.

Technical Picture - Minor Gains

Markets gapped down on chatter regarding European debt and Mideast worries. Weak new home sales data at 10:00 added to the pressure. Prices stabilized shortly thereafter. By afternoon prices trended higher. The NASDAQ and DOW notched new short-term recovery highs, but the SPY didn't confirm. Still, today was the first trend-like day since the recovery began.


GDX (gold miners) forming a symmetrical triangle as it tries to catch up with GLD

GLD forming bullish inverse H&S pattern.

SMH wedging or flagging.

GES bear flagging following last week's earnings/guidance disappointment. Target gap support.

FOSL basing at resistance. Needs to consolidate after three consecutive higher closes.

LNN forming a small handle at base.

LRCX - watching to see what price will do when it fills gap. I suspect we'll rally back to $56.00 before reversing back down.

ITMN basing, looking for higher price.

Day Trades

Technical Picture - Markets Mixed

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The markets gapped higher on the open, but the gap was quickly faded. Prices extended lower, beyond the gap fill, to first level supports. Prices stabilized and started to rally mid-morning, eventually extending to fresh 52 week highs. The S&P tagged 1250 which is the full measured move of the inverse H&S bottom from last summer as depicted on the chart above. The DOW did not confirm as it was dragged down by AXP weakness on a downgrade.

On the SPY 60 minute chart below, we see that prices are still consolidating within a tight range. Watch the MACD as it coils on the signal line, which could lead to a big move on light volume.

$USD still strong.

Oil has carved out a bull flag and looks ready to BO. A full measured move on a successful BO, should see $97.00.

CNQ flagging.

Copper and coal are bullish and flagging.

Trades

AMRN reached the full measured move of the bull flag pattern today and I sold more shares. I'm still holding 20% and will add to the position on a pullback. There's no resistance on the weekly timeframe until we reach $10.00.

AMZN was a HCPG pick. I waited for a low risk entry after the retest of the BO point. Did not want to trade this on the open (too risky). I'm glad I waited.

POT - buy support and sell at round $ level.

CHK was an ambush trade.

NQ formed a nice continuation triangle after the initial rally from support. I took a partial when the symmetrical target was reached. Price consolidated again in a tighter coiling formation before going vertical for the last sprint of the day. This was my favorite trade of the day.