Selasa, 07 Desember 2010

Technical Picture - Bears Own It

Overnight futures rallied on news of Obama's compromised tax legislation. As the markets were setting for the open NQ futures broke out of a bull flag, but S&P and DOW did not confirm. Both the S&P and Nasdaq opened at fresh highs not seen since Sept. 2008, but the DOW failed to open above the Nov. 2010 high. Non-confirmation usually leads to reversals. The gap was faded with volume, hence a momentum move to the downside, followed by, the usual midday chop. Prices retraced back to the ambush zone, at which point, the bears took back control and crushed prices down to the 62% FE in the last hour.

As depicted on the S&P chart above, today's sell-off was on big volume. The intraday action was highly predictable just by studying price/volume and the candlestick action in the ambush zone.

The bears controlled the open and close and expect some follow through.


After watching Zortrades Monday night show on stocktwitsTV and studying the charts I was inspired to be bearish again towards gold and silver. Prices on some of the charts had traded outside the daily Bollinger bands for 2-3 days in a row and needed to correct. All we needed was a gap open.

The gap open was my cue and I shorted AEM, SLW, and CNQ on the open. The AEM chart below was my favorite. SLW almost identical. CNQ was slower, but eventually succumbed. After locking half, I'm swinging all three. Watching today's midday retracement highs to hold as resistance on the swings.

ONXX was a gapper. After it established support in the upper range of the opening gap, I entered long on break of NR7,or probably NR5. The opening range is too wide, so I eventually placed my fibs at the base of the cup. Markets were too weak and the C&H BO failed, but the early entry allowed for a good profit.

CTRP, another gapper, offered a good ambush trade, but I missed it. Instead, I took it long after a nice basing period at $46.00. Took a partial when it felt like it was stalling, and exit on the 62% FE.

A few stocks on my Focus List

AAPL - The third pivot in to the baseline is usually the charm. Failure here should retrace at least to the ambush zone.

LVS - Mentioned this one in my last post. It started to BO of the bear flag late in today's session.

NFLX - 60 minute chart - perfect ambush on the open. Look for NFLX to make lower lows, at least to gap support, and most likely to gap fill. As long as the RSI holds the 50-60 zone as resistance, the stock is weak.


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