Day Trades - TCK, CLF, TBL

Bear flags have been hit and miss in this market. Mostly they've been fake outs. So why was TCK a good short? From the daily chart above, we noted a huge volume spike on the Feb. 9th drubbing. So we see a huge red stick with volume, plus bear flag with NRIB observing the downsloping 5 ema as resistance closing at the base of support. This bear flag felt like it could work.

Small size on break of $58.00 and added at the first consolidation BO. Took a partial after 3 consecutive WRBs on 15 min. timeframe (not depicted). Got stopped on balance as price capitulated into $56.00 and bounced.

CLF gapped up on earnings. Price chopped around in the first hour and then started basing in an increasingly narrow range, forming a flat base at $99.50, and setting up a gap fade.

Price breaks down, retests the base and runs lower for 3 consecutive 15 minute bars. Take a partial as price approaches $98.00. CLF snapped back sharply. I thought the second half was going to get stopped out at BE, but, it came back down and I was able to salvage a decent profit on the second half.

Looking back at the 15 minute chart, there just wasn't enough volume expansion on the initial leg lower to expect continuation.

TBL was another earnings gap from the Trade-Ideas scanner - gap up min. $1.00, RSI on 15 minute timeframe minimum 60.

TBL gapped and ripped then spent most of the rest of the session in a tight narrow range. Normally, I like to buy the BO of the upper range, but time was of the essence, so I decided to buy the bounce off of the bottom of the range, then if the BO failed, I would have some profit from the trade. Turned out to be a good strategy as price/volume expanded into the close. The base BO also set up perfectly with a low risk NRB on the 15 min. timeframe.

Entry and exits depicted on 1 minute chart below.

Technical Picture - Markets Mixed

The markets gapped higher on the open, but the gap was quickly faded. Prices extended lower, beyond the gap fill, to first level supports. Prices stabilized and started to rally mid-morning, eventually extending to fresh 52 week highs. The S&P tagged 1250 which is the full measured move of the inverse H&S bottom from last summer as depicted on the chart above. The DOW did not confirm as it was dragged down by AXP weakness on a downgrade.

On the SPY 60 minute chart below, we see that prices are still consolidating within a tight range. Watch the MACD as it coils on the signal line, which could lead to a big move on light volume.

$USD still strong.

Oil has carved out a bull flag and looks ready to BO. A full measured move on a successful BO, should see $97.00.

CNQ flagging.

Copper and coal are bullish and flagging.

Trades

AMRN reached the full measured move of the bull flag pattern today and I sold more shares. I'm still holding 20% and will add to the position on a pullback. There's no resistance on the weekly timeframe until we reach $10.00.

AMZN was a HCPG pick. I waited for a low risk entry after the retest of the BO point. Did not want to trade this on the open (too risky). I'm glad I waited.

POT - buy support and sell at round $ level.

CHK was an ambush trade.

NQ formed a nice continuation triangle after the initial rally from support. I took a partial when the symmetrical target was reached. Price consolidated again in a tighter coiling formation before going vertical for the last sprint of the day. This was my favorite trade of the day.

Posted a couple of charts on Chart.ly FWLT and FAST. FST also looks good.

Technical Picture - Bears Own It

Overnight futures rallied on news of Obama's compromised tax legislation. As the markets were setting for the open NQ futures broke out of a bull flag, but S&P and DOW did not confirm. Both the S&P and Nasdaq opened at fresh highs not seen since Sept. 2008, but the DOW failed to open above the Nov. 2010 high. Non-confirmation usually leads to reversals. The gap was faded with volume, hence a momentum move to the downside, followed by, the usual midday chop. Prices retraced back to the ambush zone, at which point, the bears took back control and crushed prices down to the 62% FE in the last hour.

As depicted on the S&P chart above, today's sell-off was on big volume. The intraday action was highly predictable just by studying price/volume and the candlestick action in the ambush zone.

The bears controlled the open and close and expect some follow through.

After watching Zortrades Monday night show on stocktwitsTV and studying the charts I was inspired to be bearish again towards gold and silver. Prices on some of the charts had traded outside the daily Bollinger bands for 2-3 days in a row and needed to correct. All we needed was a gap open.

The gap open was my cue and I shorted AEM, SLW, and CNQ on the open. The AEM chart below was my favorite. SLW almost identical. CNQ was slower, but eventually succumbed. After locking half, I'm swinging all three. Watching today's midday retracement highs to hold as resistance on the swings.

ONXX was a gapper. After it established support in the upper range of the opening gap, I entered long on break of NR7,or probably NR5. The opening range is too wide, so I eventually placed my fibs at the base of the cup. Markets were too weak and the C&H BO failed, but the early entry allowed for a good profit.

CTRP, another gapper, offered a good ambush trade, but I missed it. Instead, I took it long after a nice basing period at $46.00. Took a partial when it felt like it was stalling, and exit on the 62% FE.

A few stocks on my Focus List

AAPL - The third pivot in to the baseline is usually the charm. Failure here should retrace at least to the ambush zone.

LVS - Mentioned this one in my last post. It started to BO of the bear flag late in today's session.

NFLX - 60 minute chart - perfect ambush on the open. Look for NFLX to make lower lows, at least to gap support, and most likely to gap fill. As long as the RSI holds the 50-60 zone as resistance, the stock is weak.

Gap Fade - SPY

The SPY setup a perfect gap fade shortly after the open, when prices tested resistance and formed a descending triangle on the 1 minute. The red line segments are how I managed my stop. After the double bottom, I exit half and was stopped on balance minutes later. I was hoping the PDL would hold as resistance but the bulls wouldn't have it.


A choppy session with a midday price/volume spike noted on auction results. The auction stuff is over my head so I stayed away and took the rest of the afternoon off.

Gap - MDVN, Gap Fade - ATHN, Ambush - SPY

MDVN, from the TI scanner, gapped up in late pre-market. The opening range leaves a long upper shadow, but clears daily resistance (blue line) on a closing basis. The next two bars are NRIBs in close proximity to rising 5 period EMA. This setup is very similar to the GIL trade earlier this week. Burn it to memory for future reference.

It's always a good idea to map out daily support/resistance of gapper candidates in pre-market and/or first 15-30 minutes of trading session. That's why I like the TI scanner - it tells me how many days of S/R are being taken out in pre-market price action.

ATHN, also from the TI scanner, had two support levels at $29 and $28. Buyers stepped in at $29. The opening range was solidly bullish and I waited for a break of ORH. It's important to watch carefully, for a close above the downsloping 5 period EMA just above the BO point.


SPY setup a perfect ambush trade. Took a partial as price approached the downsloping 50 SMA and exit balance on weakness following lower high. Price eventually retested sessions highs, but failed to close above, so I waited for confirmation and shorted the failure.