Technical Picture - Markets Edge Up in Quiet Trade

The SPY has managed to fill all of the gaps as it bounced off of the lower channel line. However, there's been a lack of momentum as depicted by the RSI. Without a catalyst, I expect more lackluster trade.

The $USD failed in a attempt to BO of an inverse H&S bottom. This has provided a boost to the commodity trade, but outside of Ags and copper, I'm not seeing much conviction yet.

ES_futures trading higher on a very weak $USD as I write this post.

Stocks Setting Up for This Week

NVLS- NR7 coiling - buy on break of $36.00 for a move back up to the base of inverse H&S pattern, and eventual BO.

Flagging - PETM (above) and ERTS (below). Other bullish flags on my WL are DISH and FL (not depicted).

QCOM has been basing in a tight formation for several weeks. Now that the Bollinger bands have tightened, I expect a BO attempt very soon.

MELI has carved out a symmetrical continuation pattern with strong volume on the upswings within the triangle. This is the most promising setup for a BO long.


RIMM is a box play.

AKAM - positive divergence of the MACD to lower prices foreshadows a trend reversal.

FFIV cleared its 200 DMA on higher volume. Look for price to consolidate in upper range and then BO.

CREE cleared its 50 DMA on decent volume. Base and break.

Technical Picture - Nasdaq Clears Resistance on Strong Tech Earnings

As we can see from the chart above, the NASDAQ took out preliminary resistance at 2800 on the strength of tech earnings from AAPL, FFIV, and QCOM. Volume was lighter likely due to the holiday shortened week. Hopefully, we can hold 2800 as support next week, however, semi names reporting Thursday night were mostly down (SNDK, CY, RMBS...).

S&P closed just shy of resistance as depicted on the chart below. Now we have a perfect inverse H&S pattern. On a measured move basis, a successful BO target would add 90 points to SPX 1430.

On the SPY chart below we highlight the gap support area. Some backing and filling prior to BO would come as no surprise given the short-term extended posture.


Some of the bigger names reporting earnings the week of April 25th-29th:

• Monday: ABFS, CYOU, BEAV, BPOP, ACGL, MAS, RCII, SANM, UCTT, VECO, WRB, and WCN.
• Tuesday: MMM, ACPW, AKS, ACI, AN, CPLA, COH, KO, DAL, F, GPI, HSY, ITW, LMT, LO, MHP, ODP, PCH, RYN, UA, X, UPS, LCC, VLO, WDR, ADVS, AMZN, AJG, BGS, BDX, BRCM, BWLD, CNI, DV, EHTH, FORM, IRBT, LIFE, MIPS, HA, RFMD, SSCC, SWK, SFSF, SMCI, UHS, USNA, VSI, and WBSN
• Wednesday: ARMH, AUO, ABX, BA, BP, EAT, COP, DPS, ENR, GD, LAZ, LAD, ERIC, MSO, MCO, TUP, WLP, WHR, AKAM, ALL, AVB, BIDU, EBAY, FLEX, FLS, LOGI, MBFI, NSC, ORLY, SBUX, TQNT, and VAR.
• Thursday: ABC, BWA, BGG, BMY, CAB, CAH, CELG, CME, CCE, CL, XRAY, D, DOW, XOM, BEN, HEP, HST, IMAX, KBR, MJN, OXY, OMX, OSK, PEP, POT, PG, PHM, CELL, CSTR, DECK, TWC, STRA, KLAC, MSFT, MWW, NTGR, SIMO, TRLG, and VRSN.
• Friday: AXL, CAT, CVX, DHI, FLIR, GT, LEA, MRK, and WY.

SLV - Watching for short-term blow off top as price edges above the upper BB and trades along the upper channel line.



USD testing the upper level of support zone. Looking for an oversold technical bounce any time now.

Biotech Day Trades

After last Monday's huge earnings gap, AMRN formed solid base, setting up a target trade back to the upper range of the gap up day.

AMGN and TEVA were earnings disappointments, setting up downside extensions.

Day Trade Analysis - AGCO, MOS, CAT, JOYG

Agribusiness names gapped up on the release of the USDA's bullish crop report. AGCO (agri farm equipment) had a bullish wide opening range. Price consolidated the gap through time in the upper portion of the OR at the base of the weekly pivot R2. The NRIB was the trigger. Place stop a few pennies below outside bar.

Wait for price to trade within the BB (Bolinger Band Std. dev. 2) to avoid lengthy consolidations, or worse, sling shots back to the retracement zone. Took a partial at 50% FE. Exit balance when price stalls at the whole $ level.

At the EOD, AGCO looks like a failed BO (shooting star). Expect price to retrace to gap support and possibly gap fill.

MOS - another Ag, breaks out of gap flag just below the weekly R2 and stalls, forms a handle and then goes on to extend to the measured move target.

CAT - Daily BO at $80.00. Been stalking this one a while.

JOYG was a HCPG newsletter pick at the daily spot (blue line). Here again the BB keeps us from entering until the initial breach has consolidated and JOYG is ripe to move higher. Took a partial at weekly R2.