Amgen Inc. (Public, NASDAQ: AMGN)

AMGN daily had a nice setup today with respect to the 50-day MA. Often when price gets sandwiched between a couple of key MAs on the daily, it will ping-pong between them. Today AMGN broke down from the 50-day MA and moved toward the 200-day MA with a nice setup on multiple timeframes (15min "h" pattern). RIMM is also currently bouncing between key daily MAs.

Technical Picture - Technical Correction of Overbought Market

The markets are technically overextended, so a minor bounce in the dollar and some weaker than expected data, gave rise to some profit taking. Most of the selling occurred in the first hour, after which, it was a slow drift sideways as OPEX came into play.

The trendline from the 2007 highs to the May 2008 retracment as depicted on the SPY chart below, is in play ie. providing resistance.

As noted above, stocks sold off sharply in the first hour, but sort of drifted sideways thereafter. Good low risk setups were hard to find, but I did spot a nice bear flag on GS and this bearish h pattern in ESRX.

Minor setup in RIMM - Ambush play - 62% retracement of the last leg up.

Gap Fade - Caterpillar Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAT)

CAT gapped wide on earnings and immediately started to fade. Support from the rising 5 EMA initially looked promising, but price got stuck inside the second 15 min. stick. After NR7 completed, it started to look like a bearish h pattern was developing, so I shorted the break of NR7.

Took a partial at the 50% extension and rising 20 ema. I covered the balance as price crossed back above the 20 ema.

CNQ - Sell break of support as oil stocks finally succumb to some profit taking.

Technical Picture - Bearish Candlesticks

Markets notched new intraday highs on strong economic data, but failed to hold. After failing to retest the early highs, prices retraced back to session lows. This leaves the S&P with two consecutive shooting stars and possibly a tweezer top reversal pattern.

Keep an eye on economic data tomorrow - durables in pre-market, followed by new home sales at 10:00 EST and crude inventories at 10:30.



If you have POT on your focus list, we lucked out again today with a bearish h pattern. Quite similar to Jim's CME bearish flag yesterday, except the consolidation has more of a curve. Price penetrated support from 3 PDLs (red line segments) and tried to save itself through a lengthy period of price/volume contraction. But the bears were victorious on the expansion. Once support gives way, all the preset stops trigger resulting in a fast move to the next support level.

Happy Canada Day

What does this post have to do with Canada Day? Nothing, but I just wanted wish our Canadian readers a happy July 1st. Cheers! Oh, and three of the four trades below are Canadian ADRs.

If oil breaks down, DUG will break the channel to the upside.

I've been watching and trading CNQ. Yesterday it broke it's short-term trendline. Today it gapped above it, but turned into a quick fade despite a weaker dollar. Inventory build means less demand, so oil is poised to correct.

On the DUG chart, the same trade would be the reversal at the lower channel line.

The 5 minute chart of CNQ shows how it set up a perfect ambush trade. A decisive move lower after failing to hold on the trendline, followed by a quick retracement. Within the R-zone, it forms a base at the 50% level, breaks higher and stalls at 62%.

POT is another Ambush example. I didn't trade the ambush, but rather the h pattern, which took a long time to get going, but eventually delivered.


RIMM - I'm calling this the Groundhog Day setup. If you've seen the movie, you will get it, but if you haven't, I'm taking the exact same trade as yesterday, at the same price. Worked like a charm today.
PFCB was a stock I found on the TI scanner. The scan is called Stocks with the MOST Upside Momentum. I've modified the scan to meet my particular needs. On a day like today I get a reasonable amount of hits and when I see something I like, I wait for a pullback and jump in.

The stock broke out of C&H pattern and came back to retest the base. This is a shallow retracement as opposed to an ambush, so I prefer to wait for base & break. I exit as price approaches the FE and whole $ level. PFCB carved out a bearish rounded top so I couldn't resist the shorting opp. That was the best part of the trade!

Technical Picture - Bears Own It

Another distribution day for the major markets which all sold off on accelerating volume. The NASDAQ held at gap support, but the rounded top foreshadows further downside to come. Gap closure, should provide short-term support on the NAZ. The S&P tried to bounce off of support but only managed a shallow intraday retracement before the bears took over the close.

I expect prices to find a short-term bottom tomorrow, after which we fall into the OPEX trade. So I will be looking at key support levels such as POT $105-106 for long entries in early trade tomorrow morning. If POT carves out a reversal stick in my spot, I then target 108-110 as a retracement trade. Don't force it, don't chase it, and don't try to catch a falling knife.




AMGN early strength on analyst upgrade with new target of $65. Also like the daily here as a defensive sector play on potential market weakness.


RIMM was a failed BO. I should have shorted the failure but I thought with earnings out tomorrow Thursday, it might just trade sideways.

CNQ gap turned into a fade - short the h pattern.

SOHU was a HCPG target trade.

$USD Bounces - Commodities Get Crushed

We've been monitoring the $USD's slide and said that it was coming into support. Today the USD gapped up on the open and rallied all day. So, the obvious play is to short commodities. I prefer the Canadian names because the $CAD is going to take a hit on a stronger USD as well, and that sounds like a double play. Not sure if that's real or bogus, but in my mind, it all makes sense.

The first chart is CNQ 15 min. the blue lines represent S/R. CNQ was basing along the middle trend channel line yesterday and gapped lower on the open. Ideally, you want to get in as close as possible to a blue line, and above the lower trend channel line.

The best way to get in is to move it to the lower timeframe. Using the 1 minute chart below, we see a tiny h pattern form at the base of the second blue line.


POT paused at support to consolidate the first leg down. It couldn't close above the downsloping 5 period EMA, so short as price crosses below the blue support line.

AGU formed a bear flag with lots of room to move to the next support level.

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VIX "h" Pattern Update - Daily & Weekly

Even though the broad market had a narrow range consolidation day, the VIX volatility index declined today. Generally speaking, a decline in the VIX has bullish implications for the stock market. Below is an updated daily chart of the VIX showing the h-pattern that I mentioned previously and a horizontal support line at the base of the "h". Notice the VIX closed just below that horizontal support line today.

Markets are fractal in nature which means that similar patterns occur on multiple timeframes and often simultaneously on multiple timeframes. Here is a weekly chart of the VIX showing another (higher timeframe) h-pattern and the horizontal support line. Notice the horizontal support line on the weekly is being violated.

Opening Range Breakout - Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (Public, NYSE:POT)

First order of business today was to lock in my swing profit on ABX. Today's market sell-off spared no sectors, so pointless trying to pick a bottom until a clear reversal pattern develops.

POT/AGU carved out bearish h patterns.

STT from the Trade-Ideas pre-market gapper scan faked an upside move, but quickly failed, setting up a low risk short. Took a partial as price retraced to the ORL. Eventually, STT carved out an inverse C&H, but failed to extend much beyond 50% on the first swing lower.

Inverted h Pattern -Hansen Natural Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:HANS)

HANS was an earnings gap from the pre-market scanner. Price gapped slightly and made a fast move higher. Place fibs from the ORL to the early pivot high. Price found support in the R-zone and I entered long. Exit as price approaches whole $ level just below 100% fib. extension. Price doesn't always reach the full extension and it's better to exit into strength. This is an inverted h-pattern.

Biotech Blood Bath - Amgen, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMGN)

I think the chart speaks for itself. Initially, I thought this was a bearish base with a perfect NRIB in the lower shadow of the outside bar (red on red). Obviously, it grew into much more than that. The h-pattern is awesome. I took a partial at $57.00 $55.00 - price stalls at whole $ number.

When I realized that the entire sector was in a race to the bottom, I ignored the fib. lines and waited for a bona fide reversal pattern. Price never closed above the downsloping 5 period EMA and never printed a red bar after consolidating $57.00 $55.00.

This was the best trade of the day, but I want to follow-up on ABX and FSLR if I have time later tonight.