Update on ABX Swing

This is the TSX chart of ABX where I placed yesterday's swing trade. The Canadian chart is slightly more symmetrical than the US chart. Price gapped into resistance and the whole $ level so I exit the swing for almost 3 point gain. Price retraced back to the $38.00 base and I entered long again. The R-zone acted as resistance and I didn't want to have a losing trade going into the weekend, so I exit. Price retested yesterday's lows and reversed, so I swing again.

From the daily chart below, we can ascertain that $38.00 is a solid support area - several pivots and 200 SMA. However, it could fail and price could go to $35.00. Hopefully that won't happen. I'm targeting $45.00.

Inverted h Pattern -Hansen Natural Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:HANS)

HANS was an earnings gap from the pre-market scanner. Price gapped slightly and made a fast move higher. Place fibs from the ORL to the early pivot high. Price found support in the R-zone and I entered long. Exit as price approaches whole $ level just below 100% fib. extension. Price doesn't always reach the full extension and it's better to exit into strength. This is an inverted h-pattern.

Technical Picture - Box Play

The market proved unable to generate enough momentum to work back through Wednesday's highs on the morning push led by banks and oil, with a choppy pullback into midday trade. The markets sold off on the Obama budget. The worst performing sectors were led by Healthcare -10.3%, Health Provider -6.6%, Biotech -4.4%, Medical Equipment -4.2%, Medical Supplies -3.6% amid concerns over the president's health care system plans. We're trading in a box. Expect more intraday swings until the BO which could occur tomorrow.

Follow Up Trades - FSLR and ABX

Last night we said that FSLR could go lower because it closed weak. The fibs were placed at the early pivot high and low. Price rallied back through the R-zone and carved out a shooting star ,so short as it exits the R-zone.

From the 15 min. chart we see that the initial inverse C&H turned into an inverse H&S. The H&S failed and we reached full extension of the initial pattern in early trade this morning.


I started scaling in ABX on a higher low, when I noticed that AEM, today's loss leader was reversing and moving out of its base. Added to the position after it formed a 3 pivot base. I partialed out when price ran into the downsloping 50 SMA on the 15 min. There was a C&H pattern on 15 min. but it stalled shortly out of the base because of 50 SMA.

I did same trade in my retirement account except holding for a swing. If markets roll over, gold should be the safe haven play once again.

Biotech Blood Bath - Amgen, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMGN)

I think the chart speaks for itself. Initially, I thought this was a bearish base with a perfect NRIB in the lower shadow of the outside bar (red on red). Obviously, it grew into much more than that. The h-pattern is awesome. I took a partial at $57.00 $55.00 - price stalls at whole $ number.

When I realized that the entire sector was in a race to the bottom, I ignored the fib. lines and waited for a bona fide reversal pattern. Price never closed above the downsloping 5 period EMA and never printed a red bar after consolidating $57.00 $55.00.

This was the best trade of the day, but I want to follow-up on ABX and FSLR if I have time later tonight.

Opening Range Breakout - Agrium Inc. (USA) (Public, NYSE:AGU)

Shortly after 9:00 EST, the TI pre-market scanner had a lot of activity in Agchem, with CF ripping higher and AGU lower. AGU for CF was in play - short the acquirer and long the acquiree. I place my fibs from the pivot low to the pivot high and the trade became obvious with NRIB at base of R-zone.

A second trade presented itself on the retracement. This time place fibs from ORH to morning pivot low and watch price in the R-zone.

CF didn't go anywhere near the offer price (I read $72 on Briefing, but maybe it was a typo).

Last night we said that after yesterday's gold drubbing, we might get a snap back. Okay, so that was too optimistic, but the ORB trade set up nicely as price tested the R-zone for support and rallied from there.

The snap back rally might happen tomorrow. As you can see from the daily chart of ABX, today's stick is an inverted hammer and could form the middle bar of a morning star reversal if tomorrow we rally up to the mid-point (or more) of yesterday's WRB. Many gold stocks printed similar patterns so not just ABX.

Last night we said FSLR was trading lower on earnings. I was watching it out of the corner of my eye, but must have been distracted, because I missed the actual BO. Rather than jump in, I waited for price to consolidate. Place fibs above BO base and wait for retracement. I was expecting a flag, but instead I got a shoulder, so I knew that I had to get out earlier than planned ( 15 min. chart looked like inverse C&H).

Nice extension (big head). I should have entered long as price broke above 50% extension level (NRIB), but I was waiting for inverse H&S to take shape. It got sloppy and didn't break successfully. Finally jumped in on a mini three point base.

Short into the close. Since the close is weak we may get further downside tomorrow. The prelim. target would be $100.00, but could, over next few sessions fill the Nov. gap.

Technical Picture - Oversold Bounce

An impressive technical bounce for the stock market, reversing the previous day's breakdown to post strong broad based gains on above average volume. This technical hold, the deeply over extended posture, relative strength yesterday in the key Financial sector (XLF did not breakdown) and again today (XLF +12%) along with the ability of the S&P to remain above Monday's trough despite the weakest Consumer Confidence data on record (25.0 vs. consensus of 35.0) helped to underpin the action. Also providing leadership were: Coal +11%, Paper +11%, REITs, Clean Energy/Solar +8%, Housing XHB +7%, Oil Service +6%, and Steel +6%, . Little on the defensive other than Gold/Silver XAU-7% (refer to chart below).

Looking forward, a 62% retracement of the last leg down, would fill last week's gap.

FSLR trading much lower after hours on weak earnings.