Technical Picture - Low Volume Chop

$USD consolidating gains in orderly fashion. Looks well positioned to go higher.

SPX versus VIX - Time for some retracement?


AAPL just broke out to all time highs on low volume. Can it hold? Today's bearish engulfing bar foreshadows a failed BO. It may be just a retest of the BO point, or not. Keep this one on the radar. Remember, failed BOs lead to fast moves in the opposite direction.

Continuation Play - Cephalon, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CEPH)

The first chart of CEPH is the daily. We note that yesterday it broke out of a seven month base and today we filled the bearish gap. Prices closed near the highs of the day, so the gap fill didn't give rise to profit taking.

The 15 min. and 5 min. timeframes show the day trades. Two low risk entries followed each by vertical expansion. Intraday pivots used as guides for support/resistance.

The last chart is the 3 minute timeframe of the trading channel since CEPH broke out of its base. The next level of resistance is $62.50. Price is testing the lower channel into the close.

Handle - Cephalon, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CEPH)

CEPH gapped up, printed a wide, bullish OR, followed by a handle in the upper range. The handle leads to price expansion and a full measured move as measured using the Fibonacci tool from the ORL to the ORH.

REGN was found through the Trade-Ideas scanner using the momentum scan. Again, a small, tight handle with NR7, leads to a full measured move of the last leg up.

Stock Picks

FLR $44.00 should be good to go long. Tuesday's WRB had high volume. Price is consolidating the move in the upper range (3 NRBs - price contraction before expansion). Looking for another WRB on the break.

POT closed on support Friday, but I expect it might go lower before it retraces ( closed on lows with big volume). Hoping for a hammer reversal bar tomorrow, followed by a retracement to the ambush zone.

$USD versus Gold

The first two charts show that the $USD has had thrusty move off the bottom to a resistance zone. The RSI is flirting with 70 so its likely to pause to consolidate or retrace somewhat at this level.



The last three charts show how gold rallied out of an inverse H&S pattern, approaching a full measured move of 100% from the BO point in relatively little time (parabolic move), but stalled , carved out a bearish island reversal pattern, followed by a steep decline back to the accelerated trendline. Price and the accelerated trendline are on the edge of the ambush zone of the last leg up, so this is a possible area for a retracement.

Click on charts to enlarge

Day Trade - Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (Public, NYSE:POT)

$USD vs. Gold still in play; SPX remains range bound. Watch as the greenback and gold approach for a kiss. Will they reverse or will they cross?


A failed setup in POT followed by a long, very tight, narrow range chop finally succumbed to weakness in the last hour after failing to take out the downsloping 20 EMA. The shooting star is the tell.

Amgen Inc. (Public, NASDAQ: AMGN)

AMGN daily had a nice setup today with respect to the 50-day MA. Often when price gets sandwiched between a couple of key MAs on the daily, it will ping-pong between them. Today AMGN broke down from the 50-day MA and moved toward the 200-day MA with a nice setup on multiple timeframes (15min "h" pattern). RIMM is also currently bouncing between key daily MAs.