Ags Breakout - Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (Public, NYSE:POT)

MOO broke out of a two month base yesterday led by POT (second largest component of MOO, next to DE).

As discussed in my previous post, POT had carved out a multi-mth base and was setting up for BO. Unfortunately, I wasn't expecting it to move so quickly. But in reviewing the chart now, I see that the price/volume contraction on Monday and Tuesday foreshadowed an imminent BO.

Based on the size and quality of the base and weekly resistance, I am targeting $180 near-term for POT.

My initial entry and partial ($150 round number) were executed from my TWS iphone app using an area chart. I wish I had been home for this. Was relieved to get home in early afternoon to see a real chart.

This chart is one of the most perfectly orderly charts in my recent trading memory. Note that POT never made a lower low after the initial entry, until it failed to print red price bars on a new high shortly before my exit. Anyone trying to short, prior to that level was hurting pretty bad.

POT formed two ascending triangles on the way up, allowing participants who missed the initial BO, to jump in. Burn this chart to memory, it's a perfect example of momo in action.

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Technical Picture - Markets Mixed (Snooze Fest)

We opened strong but faded right on the open. Strength in precious metals was not enough to carryover momentum from yesterday's recovery. Tech weakness weighed in the early going, but by the end of the session the DOW managed to join the S&P in notching new intraday recovery highs. The Compq and Russell didn't confirm.

Lackluster trading as depicted in the three stocks traded today. MON broke out of a high,tight flag and floundered.

PCLN was basing on $405.00, setting up for a fast move lower, but turned into a big disappointment.

TCK was a HCPG pick at $58.50, but I didn't like the opening range, so I put it aside. Eventually, it formed a solid base at $59.00 with NR7 as the trigger.

The Ag sector is well positioned to move higher, but needs to time to consolidate recent gains. I like AGU and POT going forward, but I want to see some sideways action for the next few days, as we are too extended here.

FFIV is coiling in a bearish inverted saucer pattern. 1st target is $130.00.

LVS is in a down sloping channel. The MAs are converging over price signaling more downside to come. I suspect we'll go back and completely fill the gap on the 15 min. timeframe below.

FCS could BO anytime.

Also watching high,tight flags AGCO and TSRA, but need to see market strength before jumping into longs.

Day Trades - V, NQH1, TCK

V had been consolidating the previous week's drubbing in a narrow range under $69.00. Placed a buy stop order at $69.05 which was triggered about 5 minutes into the trading session. Price rallied up to and above the weekly R2, but couldn't hold, so I took a partial. The next rally brought us above $71.00. When that level couldn't hold, I folded the balance of my position.

After a gap down and swift move lower, the NQ e-mini futures formed a cup & handle base. Took a long entry out of the base, looking for a gap fill.

Took a partial at the gap fill and let the rest run. More upside, followed by a lengthy consolidation and I closed the trade when it failed in the mid-range of the consolidation zone.

TCK - Buy bounce from support and sell into resistance. Define your trigger when buying support because you don't want to catch a falling knife.

Technical Picture - Markets Mixed

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The markets gapped higher on the open, but the gap was quickly faded. Prices extended lower, beyond the gap fill, to first level supports. Prices stabilized and started to rally mid-morning, eventually extending to fresh 52 week highs. The S&P tagged 1250 which is the full measured move of the inverse H&S bottom from last summer as depicted on the chart above. The DOW did not confirm as it was dragged down by AXP weakness on a downgrade.

On the SPY 60 minute chart below, we see that prices are still consolidating within a tight range. Watch the MACD as it coils on the signal line, which could lead to a big move on light volume.

$USD still strong.

Oil has carved out a bull flag and looks ready to BO. A full measured move on a successful BO, should see $97.00.

CNQ flagging.

Copper and coal are bullish and flagging.

Trades

AMRN reached the full measured move of the bull flag pattern today and I sold more shares. I'm still holding 20% and will add to the position on a pullback. There's no resistance on the weekly timeframe until we reach $10.00.

AMZN was a HCPG pick. I waited for a low risk entry after the retest of the BO point. Did not want to trade this on the open (too risky). I'm glad I waited.

POT - buy support and sell at round $ level.

CHK was an ambush trade.

NQ formed a nice continuation triangle after the initial rally from support. I took a partial when the symmetrical target was reached. Price consolidated again in a tighter coiling formation before going vertical for the last sprint of the day. This was my favorite trade of the day.

Technical Picture - Markets Mixed

The markets gapped higher on the open, but the gap was quickly faded. Prices extended lower, beyond the gap fill, to first level supports. Prices stabilized and started to rally mid-morning, eventually extending to fresh 52 week highs. The S&P tagged 1250 which is the full measured move of the inverse H&S bottom from last summer as depicted on the chart above. The DOW did not confirm as it was dragged down by AXP weakness on a downgrade.

On the SPY 60 minute chart below, we see that prices are still consolidating within a tight range. Watch the MACD as it coils on the signal line, which could lead to a big move on light volume.

$USD still strong.

Oil has carved out a bull flag and looks ready to BO. A full measured move on a successful BO, should see $97.00.

CNQ flagging.

Copper and coal are bullish and flagging.

Trades

AMRN reached the full measured move of the bull flag pattern today and I sold more shares. I'm still holding 20% and will add to the position on a pullback. There's no resistance on the weekly timeframe until we reach $10.00.

AMZN was a HCPG pick. I waited for a low risk entry after the retest of the BO point. Did not want to trade this on the open (too risky). I'm glad I waited.

POT - buy support and sell at round $ level.

CHK was an ambush trade.

NQ formed a nice continuation triangle after the initial rally from support. I took a partial when the symmetrical target was reached. Price consolidated again in a tighter coiling formation before going vertical for the last sprint of the day. This was my favorite trade of the day.

Posted a couple of charts on Chart.ly FWLT and FAST. FST also looks good.

Technical Picture - Distribution

As noted in my last post, the posture for the S&P was too bullish. Yesterday's distribution came as no surprise. The DOW, however made a higher high yesterday morning. This was unconfirmed by the SPY and Nasdaq, hence the reversal and afternoon sell-off.

As we can see from the SPY 60 minute chart above, we have carved out a bull flag as prices have pulled back to former resistance, which for the time being, is holding as support. As long as the RSI holds 40 as support, it's all good. Failure, would change the short-term trend on this timeframe, from bullish to bearish.

As I mentioned in the last post, despite the retracement, the $USD was still in an uptrend. We said if the $USD could maintain support at RSI 40-50, we were in good shape. As you can see from the chart above, we were right. $USD strength does hamper the equity rally as it weighs on commodities.

AMRN - I posted this chart on Chart.ly over the weekend, with a BO price of $6.00. Yesterday it broke out. However, the weak market made it very choppy and hard to manage. I did lock in $0.50 on half and moved stop to BE.

Technical Picture - Markets Mixed

The markets gapped higher after China decided to put off its interest rate hike. The $USD had a sharp retracement sending commodities higher. The DOW which has been lagging, finally breached the November highs, but sellers took control of the close, sending prices back near BE and a mixed finish (tech and small caps finished in the red).

BBY earnings miss $0.07 and downward guidance is weighing in pre-market. However, PPI and retail sales were favorable. The FOMC rate decision at 2:15 EST is highly anticipated. I'll be watching to see how the $USD and GLD react.

The $USD uptrend in intact, but yesterday's sell-off leaves the door open for further downticks. I'm watching to see if supports will hold as prices push back towards the ambush zone, and if the RSI will hold the 40-50 levels.

MA from the HCPG newsletter, was the best trade of the day as depicted below. Next levels of resistance are outlined on the daily chart above.

SOHU Fibonacci retracements in play are $68.73, $65.91, followed by $62.33.

NFLX Fib. retracements in play are $181.00, $176.40, followed by a gap fill at $173.00